I agree 100% with the many comparables that notable has enlighten this board with.
The $1-$5 billion range of acquisitions is happening in the biotech world.
The pharma companies are doing well with cash, since the Covid vaccine days.
Applying outside comparable/ acquisitions to ONC is in very general terms sensible.
Moving that further to a detailed deep- dive of Onc value to an outside pharma?
Still comes down to what is in it for the aquiring company.
There is a lot on that line of thought , I do not know the answer to.
What I do know is there are 5-6 analysts covering Onc.
I have only been able to read 3 of the analysts detailed reports.
One , I can & will post some clips from.
important? They all predict, once Pela gets to market, the estimated annual income from one cancer type is $ 5 billion/ year.
Analysts by training are ultra conservative. They produce forward looking estimates based on the best known information they have.
None of them even hint at a buy- out. Reason? There is no formal anything to do any analysis from.
Meaning anything along that line would be pure speculation.
What have they offered? Clearly a company being able to create $5biloion in sales/ year, from only one use, is worth a lot more than where we ar3 today.
The numbers range from $3ps to $18ps, Again using very conservative present value calculations with huge discounts for time weighted risk.
Knowing full well, the closer to approval, the less risk & the lower the discount.
BTW one analyst did show over a dozen market equivalents, i.e. similar sized start up biotechs. Onc is by a huge margin presently the lowest market cap.
Meaning a bargain for any aquiring company.
There are others offering much less, with a much larger market cap.
The buyout option?
Always there. That applies to any company at anytime, could be bought out.
Buy- out price?
Yes the market place comparables say $5billion is not out of line.
Repeating my previous statements. The calculations which would need to be justified assuming Roche.
They would have to justify with lots of graphs, charts & numbers.....what is the potential return on the $5billion investment?
or any number ?
The going market rate, helps justify. It howevr will not sway approval from a B.O.D. Withiut seeing the $$$ return numbers.
again, the $5 billion/ year in sales is relatively constant between the analysts.
News this quarter. Meaning before end of June?
according to Onc web site & published material,there are a few things expected before end if this quarter.
Waiting for FDA phase 3 details on mbc
pancreatic cancer phase 3 start up details.
O.S. Resukts from bracelet.
year end meeting.
.....anything else we don't yet know about.
so, yes, there will be news before end if June.
hopefully good news!
regards
cf