RE:RE:RE:Meanwhile, back on the farmGo ahead, short it. Or short some more. More and more LNG leaving the USA instead of stuffing storage will pull our gas south. At higher and higher prices.if you want cheap gas , pull my finger.
commonsense9 wrote: You keep using pumped up Henry Hub prices, when AECO prices have been in the dumps all suumer, and have really crashed now- and this is no temporary hiccup.
High Canadian prices held through most of Q2- but projecting that into Q3 and Q4 is- I dont know what to call it. And ramping up drilling into this overproduced market ???
Presumably what they are really going to do is continuing to maximize how much debt to pay down. Let alone that with the gas prices they cant keep paying it down at the same rate- they are already facing it cant be paid off by the end of the term loan in 14 months. The more PEA owes, the bigger the pound of flesh TEC can carve off.
Little wonder the SP does not take off.
Maxmoe wrote: Meanwhile at PEA, the next couple quarters will be very exciting assuming nobody picks off the stock cheap. Production should be back up around 40,000 boe/d of almost entirely gas. Gas hit $10 without a hurricane or even a little frost on the old pumpkin. I read at q2 93% of production was UNHEDGED for 2023! I'm sure they've rolled into hedges since, but the new contracts should be a step function higher than the old contracts rolling off. Q2 annualized had record cashflow and earnings around 1 to 2X valuation multiples. Now ADD IN there will be actual drilling happening to take production up through 40,000 boe/d , add in tick tock tick tock gas exports from the WEST COAST will be a real thing, and I'm gleefully waiting for another double in the stock price. I missed the first few out of fear that goldboro boondoggle would sink them. $2 this year, $4 end of next year is what I'm looking for.
Maxmoe wrote: As mentioned, the only thing close to production in under 3 years minimum, on the east coast of Canada, is the now repsol owned facility in Saint John. It was designed for importing LNG for use by Irving. If you don't know the Irvings they are bazillioaires based in New Brunswick with a near monopoly on oil refining and distribution in eastern Canada amongst other huge industrial businesses. The sale of their interest in the LNG plant looks typically shrewd to me. If repsol leaves it as is, Irving is basically the only customer, they can and will dictate tough terms. If repsol plans to spend big money to "reverse the flow" like the landmark reversible falls of Saint John, Irving will be sitting pretty waiting to draw whatever gas they need transported via Maine as planned. At no capex to Irving. The irvings are well accustomed to working around Quebec to get what they want/need. In my time horizon, no pipeline of oil or gas will be built from Quebec City east. So farewell Germans, keep talking amongst yourselves and with your fellow sock shorters.