RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:After waiting for over a yearYasch, this sounds like a pretty good scenario for Joe. Lucky enough to roll the dice a mere three years ago with $100K and be playing with house money a year from now (assuming the dividend remains intact). This might very well be the reality for Houbahop as well. Anyway, the thing is Joe could have bought a 20-month (for the sake of the argument to get to Feb 2024) GIC that would have yielded in the realm of 4.5%, which would have seen him make $60K in interest. That's not too much less than the $86K that he made in dividends in that same time span. Let's say Peyto (a price taker, as it deals in commodities, so inherently more risky) has a really solid 12-month return from today's close of $11.79 and Joe's shares are worth $14.74 next February. Now those 50K shares are worth ~$737K. Extremely good on an original investment of $100K, plus the $100K in dividend income, for a grand total of $837K. But what if Joe had locked in those gains last June and went the GIC route. He'd have $860K, and would have slept peacefully the previous 600 nights. Now I'm not suggesting that Joe should have disposed of all of his Peyto shares last June, or at any other time, nor am I suggesting he should be putting any money in a GIC, but I'm just illustrating or perhaps suggesting or encouraging Joe to have a discipline in his approach to investing. It's much harder to sell than to buy, so sometimes you need to set limit orders or use options, and take profits along the way so your shares don't go from $16.25 to $11.79 and you're now perhaps agonizing about the $223K that got away. And yes that same $223K can very easily get away by selling early as well, but that's a different discussion, and frankly is more for a different segment of the "investment" community. You're not investing in a company that hedges half of its production and pays out more than half of its cashflow expecting it to be a multibagger. That opportunity was seized by Joe, and has passed. Ultimately, the takeaway here is that unless Joe was significantly underweight PEY (or insert whatever other six-bagger) when he originally rolled the dice, or his entire portfolio has seen similar returns, and remains balanced to his liking and risk tolerance, he should have or should be crystalizing some of his gains to be more balanced. Stay overweight PEY if he's bullish, but don't allow it to become outsized.
And to your last point Yasch, I originally bought some PEY at $30/share back in 2017 and expected that Darren would do whatever he could to keep the dividend intact...and we all know what happened next. My original invesment was down some 97 percent by March 2020. Fortunately I've averaged down and my cost basis is now $8, but that's neither here nor there. I'd be a bit more forgiving, so to speak, if we were disussing utilities or maybe even financials, but again Peyto is a price taker, so distributions are completely unreliable on a medium to longer term basis, and as was seen in the spring of 2020, there's no proverbial floor for the SP either. If the carnage lasted much longer, Peyto could have been forced to dilute its shareholders or dispose of its precious infrastructure assets in order to deleverage.
Anyway, all the best to Joe!