Peyto Exploration & Development Corp T.PEY

Looks like

[shenty46]

Looks like we may see 20 dollars soon this time for sure maybe in winter

[robert41]

I think you may be right especially when investors under stand the value of cascades. I Didn't see this jump coming on the closing of the financing nice to see none the less

[PabloLafortune]

Like Houba posted, AESO is currently in the dumps.  However, could US natgas pricing bring us to $20? Who knows but not impossible IMO. 6 of the 7 major variables IMO are trending in the right direction:  #1 Cdn imports - down 1B. #2 Mexico exports - up 1-2B. Also there is a FLNG coming online in October? #3 Demand growth - up 3-5% typically YoY. #4 other power sources - generally

[PabloLafortune]

Just to update my earlier narrative on natural gas, it was down today and now its right back up. This has been going on for a few days (finally). The story it seems is that production is now barely up over last year (0.5 to 1% vs 2% a couple months ago and even higher before that). Initially it was pipeline maintenance aka "transitory" but now the question is, is it transitory or not

[Quintessential1]

I was making a similar observation on the ARX board that the NG builds in the EIA report do not support the rise in  NA NG pricing recently and I was wondering why? Your explanation of decreasing rig counts is the best reason for a forward looking market I have heard. Even decreasing oil rig counts should produce less associated NG making average NG storage builds appear less than adequate

[PabloLafortune]

Yup, of all the variables, production from new wells is the elephant in the room. If the rig count stays at this level, YoY production growth may continue dropping and eventually become negative (ie late 2023 production being less than late 2022, or Q1 2024 less than Q1 2023).  And looking at futures pricing, I see no reason for natgas producer to add rigs. Gradually then suddenly is

[borne2run]

Pablo, I disagree with much of your long post. Storage levels are NEVER irrelevant.  In fact, they drive the nat gas futures prices.  After the mild winter, projections for the injection end of season storage were in the 4,000 bcf ballpark, based on the average 5 year injections.  Due to the hot summer, power demand increased, and the injections for August and September were below

[PabloLafortune]

Sorry for the lengthy post. Here's an executive summary: the cure for low prices is low prices. 

[borne2run]

NO disagreement with the length of your post, but did disagree with the content. BIG Difference. btw, nat gas prices are not low, especially considering that U.S. inventory is 200 bcf above the 5 year average. December futures @ $3.25, January @ $3.50. Low prices would be sub $3. Long term, I am bullish on nat gas producers.  But that doesn't mean I believe they are fantastic bargains

[PabloLafortune]

I give my thesis/narrative 2 months. Heard /Tourmaline posted on twitter today in his personal capacity that production is approaching negative YoY because a lot of natgas plays are underwater on a full cycle basis (data courtesy of JP) at these prices.

[borne2run]

Got a link? Where is production approaching negative y-o-y? Not in the U.S., according to the EIA. Lower 48 land production is up 4 bcf / day over the past 12 months. Associated gas from the Permian Basin accounts for 3 bcf / day, so the nat gas producers are only up slightly. However, Permian nat gas production will continue to increase unless the oil producers decide to reduce the oil output

[PabloLafortune]

Was negative today actually. Its all on twitter. Register then search jamie heard #natgas, celsius energy natgas. Too many posters to mention - paul saladino 7, sheprules, natgas collector, ronh and many others.

[stockmarket1]

That's interesting. I was on twitter and I see no mention of anything about negative production. Got the link?

[PabloLafortune]

Celsiusenergy twitter.

[borne2run]

Chart from CelsiusEnergy is based on genscape data, which may or may not be more accurate than the EIA. Paul saladino uses EIA reports to show a drop from the August peak, but no year over year decline.

[PabloLafortune]

They all pretty much use the same data (even daily am data gets revised later in the day). Production is declining but obviously it can't decline very fast, can it? Even if they brought no new wells online at all, and all natural gas production was dry gas, 30% annual decline means 2.5% per month. Which of course is not the case - a lot of natural gas in the lower 48 is associated gas which is

[borne2run]

Re:  GLTA. Do your own due diligence, don't believe anything anyone else says. Of course I don't believe anyone without facts. I have over 15 years of U.S. storage data. And I own Canadian energy producers, both oil and gas. My ballpark projection for end of season storage has stayed consistent for over a month - 3,800 bcf, approx 200 bcf above the 5 year average.

[Quintessential1]

US natural gas futures traded around $2.9/MMBtu due to strong demand and slightly reduced production. Gas production in September was 102.0 billion cubic feet per day, down from August's record high of 102.3 bcfd https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas GLTA