Lets raid the Penny jar. NVA has roughly 660 million in debt at the end of Q2, with 50,000 boe a day of production. That represent about 13 million in debt a flowing boe.
The note holders are a bit of a poison pill for NVA, as if there is a change in control they have the right to ask to be paid out. That means any change in control could trigger the pay out of 220 million dollars.
Short of a change in control the banks would not want to do anything that would jeopoardize their apparent strangle hold on the purse strings, and the banks have essentially shut down all of NVA field activities for the remainder of 2020. This would be a good reason to buy the bonds ahead of any transaction at a discounted price. They have been trading at a 40% discount.
It is true if you read your way though NVA presentation and reporting Bilbo seems pretty neglected.
If you bought 20% of the company, 20% of the shares and 20% of the debt, at no premium that is about 130 million in debt and 40 million shares. The shares are the cheapest part of then entire deal because currently has a market cap of 187 million, but debt of roughly 660 million, each share is encumbered by over $3.50 in debt. So to buy 20% of the company even if you had 20% of the shares, you would really need to take on 130 million in debt, however if you took the premium assets it could be a higher amount of capital. I don't think the banks will be that flexible for NVA.
Bilbo and Gold creek are the most attractive assets to POU. My guess for production around bilbo is around 16-18 thousand boe.
So i am not sure how the deal will come down, i think there is a 120-200 million dollar question that needs to be addressed. Where is the cash going to come from.
However i am sure a deal is coming and it will happen this week, or monday next week is my best guess.
IMHO