Post by
stockwatcher7 on Mar 20, 2023 12:45pm
Sprott report
https://sprott.com/media/6192/230222-prb-scp-drilling.pdf
Today’s headline hit from Pascalis is great and the average of today’s highlighted infill drilling (9 holes, 13 pierce points) is similarly solid at 14m @ 2.6g/t <136m downhole. Recall, last year’s drilling on Monique was the big win, which saw a +78%-ounce lift in last month’s MRE update. Next up are the Pascalis / Courvan resource updates, which should see a baseload improvement and M&I lift ahead of the PFS in our view. Currently, we model C$1Bn NPV5%-1850 for Novador at build start, which very simply, increases ~5% with every incremental 100koz added to our mine inventory, equating to +5c/sh to our Price Target. This leaves plenty of room to unlock value given the large delta between the ~5Moz global resource today and the PEA inventory. Beyond that, resource growth is still a focus this year - we are particularly excited for the potential step change regional drilling around Novador focused on new discoveries. For now, we maintain our BUY rating and C$2.70/sh PT based on 0.3xNAV5%-1850 for a direct-feed 1.6Moz @ 2.1g/t (+486koz @ 0.5g/t sorter feed) and 739koz @ 3.2g/t for a LOM average production of 206koz pa. With C$24m at YE22 Probe is well positioned to de-risk Novador via the drill pit and engineering (2H23 PFS) but also test new targets at Novador / Detour belt for potential discovery upside—which is precisely what CEO David Palmer is known for.
Comment by
stockwatcher7 on Mar 20, 2023 12:52pm
Why we like Probe Gold 1. Global >5Moz resource in a top tier jurisdiction 2. 3Q21 PEA shows >200koz pa with scarcity value 3. 777km2 on Detour belt offers additional upside Catalysts • 2023: 50,000m drill program at Novador including 15,000m regionally • Spring 2023: Courvan + Pascalis trend MRE update • 2H23: Novador PFS • 1Q24/26: SCPe build start and first pour