Pyrogenesis Canada Inc T.PYR

FIXED VERY conservative PYR Share Price Projections

[Aarman4]

Hey friends, longs and shorts, traders and investors,

I decided to update the Share Price Calculator that I built and use for my own sanity, and thought I would share the results.

This is my first image post on Stockhouse, so apologies if it doesn't work or show up... I'll figure it out eventually.

HOW TO READ IT:

Based upon the current number of outstanding shares, the current share price, and the predicted future forward annual earnings, the calculator shows what sort of share price we can expect based upon different P/E ratios.

WHY ARE MY NUMBERS THE WAY THEY ARE?

When I invest, two of the most important things to me, in this order, is REWARD vs RISK. Because I am not investing in government bonds, I must confess that reward is a slightly higher motivator than risk. I AM INCREDIBLY RISK AVERSE. I input earnings that I believe are the lowest probable outcome going forward. We have spent much time discussing Torch Clients a,b, and c, as well as HPQ and all of it's potentials. I think that is all great, but it is all based upon high probabilities of hope.
I have only put in half of the expectation of the first contract for torches. I have left out many other expected income sources, and I have run all numbers at a margin that is likely only 60% of true margins.....But once again, I need to be careful. I don't like losing money, so care is VERY important. I also used $CDN, even though much of the torch income is likely in $USD

SUMMARY OF RESULTS:

Using a P/E of 5,with half of predicted significant new torch revenue, and a margin of 37% on said revenue, along with last years earnings combined with other earnings from the July 14/2020 MD&A, I have a BOTTOM END PREDICTED SHARE PRICE PROJECTION OF $9.54 to end the cureent annum, which is a gain of 118% vs the current share price.

***When I extend realistic optimism into the equation, using margin of 67%, and $3B CDN of torch sales, and use a P/E multiplier of 20, we get a projected share price of $270.18, and a gain of 6,068%, and that is still without converting torch revenues from $USD. I however cannot justifiably plan for that type of success, as it opens me up to signifcant risk, no matter how likely each and every one of us believes it is.


KEEP IN MIND:

-Torch sales are likely to not be lifetime recurring at these levels
-Torch maintenance will grow over time and be positively recurring on the bottom line with high margin
-This is mainly a look at just ONE of the divisions that Pyrogenesis is involved in.
-CEO owns over 50% of the Company
-Company is currently buying back shares
-According to CEO, company has bulletproff patents on torches, purevap, drosrite, and other technologies and processes.
-Company will get 10% royalty on all future Nano-silicon sales that HPQ makes, and also owns 10% of HPQ. This alone has potential to be the largest recurring future revenue in the company.

HOW I GOT MY INPUT NUMBERS:

-Shares outstanding from TMXmoney.com
-Current Earnings from 2019 Net Earnings TMXmoney(I use this as a forward projection 'if nothing changed')
-Current Share Price as of July 19th on the TSX Venture Exchange
-Average price I set to match current price, as I run my gain% off of my average share price
-Shares held I used a value of 1. this number only effects book and current value which will be different for everyone, and therefore pointless to do higher than 1.
-Income sources used are the more significant coming income sources that should register on this years annual financials, EXCEPT CLIENT A(Client a,b,and c are still speculative, although VERY likely to materialize). These numbers were taken from the July 14/2020 MD&A
-Margin numbers were chosen based upon what the company shows as margin during their "higher income quarters".
-CLIENT A is HALF of the expected contract value($1.5B) for induration torch revenues.
-Grand Total is current earnings(2019) added to(subtracted from) conservatively predicted forward earnings
- "XXX BAGGER is based upon PE:20 and just something I use when considering likely selling price opportunities and levels(not for PYR though yet at all, lol)
-Market value is reflective of the investment amount, not the company Market CAP

DISREGARD Grand Total/SH as it is skewed slightly by me putting the wrong income field in it(it should show $1.908)



Cheers!

[developbc]

Wow Aarman4 thanks so much for your very conservative analysis...low P/E and low margins etc. Amazing...and this is just 1 division! It absolutely staggering how much is under PYR's roof...PYR is that BIG!  Torch, Drosite, Tunneling, 3D, USA Military Waste Destruction, Purevap etc....  Truly like buying into a mini fund.  Was actually thinking about going over all of PYR

[Zugzug2]

Thank you so much for your post. It is so informative and very detailed. You put in a great deal of time and thought into your post. Well done. I appreciate your time, calclations and thoughts. Thanks again.

[kingscorpion]

PYR is already in talks with multiple companies so we are expecting more and more companies to sign on Everytime a company sings on becoming company D.E.F and do on the stock price will move up a minimum $1.00 and if it turns out to be a big or bigger one then the s.p can move up over $1.50 You don't wanna wait on the sidelines

[gizmo66]

thats pretty conservative dont forget these are all multimillion and maybe billion dollar deals