RE:QTRH' ROE Wanttoknowwhy, my expectation is that next year will be very different.
Based exclusively on
organic growth, this is my first cut at F24 and F25. Serious comments would be appreciated.
| QTRH ITS | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | F-2025 | F-2024 | F-2023 | F-2022 |
| Total Revenue | $275,000 | $228,000 | $198,180 | $159,233 |
| | | | | |
| Cost of Revenue | $180,000 | $153,000 | $148,165 | $121,020 |
| | | | | |
| Gross Profit | $95,000 | $75,000 | $50,015 | $38,213 |
| | | | | |
| Margin | 34.5% | 32.9% | 25.2% | 24.0% |
| | | | | |
| Selling/General Admin | $32,000 | $32,000 | $33,390 | $41,664 |
| R&D | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,129 | $2,539 |
| Other | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,548 | $4,038 |
| TOTAL Cash Expenses | $40,500 | $40,500 | $42,067 | $48,241 |
| | | | | |
| EBITDA | $54,500 | $34,500 | $7,948 | -$10,028 |
| | | | | |
| EBITDA Percent | 19.8% | 15.1% | 4.0% | -6.3% |
| | | | | |
| Interest/Depreciation/ Amortization | $20,000 | $22,500 | $25,482 | $16,705 |
| Corporate | | | $0 | $21,455 |
| | | | | |
| Operating Income | $34,500 | $12,000 | -$17,534 | -$48,188 |
| | | | | |
| Operating Income Percent | 12.5% | 5.3% | -8.8% | -30.3% |
| | | | | |
| Shares OOS (000s) | 115,000 | 115,000 | 115,000 | 114,640 |
| | | | | |
| EPS/share | $0.30 | $0.10 | -$0.15 | -$0.42 |
| | | | | |
| EBITDA/share | $0.47 | $0.30 | $0.07 | -$0.09 |
| | | | | |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5 | 11.0 | 10.0 | |
| | | | | |
| Share price | $5.92 | $3.30 | | |
| | | | | |
| Assumptions: | | | | |
| Growth above the estimated ITS of 10%. Use ~+15% - 18% | |
| Continued marginal improvement from Q2-23 in cost of sales | |
| Small efficiencies from integration for full year in F24; plateau in F25 | |
| R&D/Other - flat | | | | |