I posted this earlier this year. I updated for the current situation.
An Apple case resolution or win at CAFC is worth a billion dollars and is a major catalyst for the next big run up in the share price.
The Motorola settlement changes the odds of an Apple settlement prior to the hearing.
It also validates the value of the other non iPhone handset makers, which is quantified below. If you recall, Cabbie confirmed with Management that the 4G portfolio is unlicensed.
Even if the hearing occurs. The VirnetX case showed investors read through and price the outcome. VirnetX stock doubled soon after the hearing.
All of the below is currently worth only $0.13 on the stock. That and all the other 5k+ patents, the upcoming Amazon case, etc.
Even Todd Coupland at CIBC values the total licensing potential at over $1 Billion CAD.
This is sitting in front of us right now. An Apple resolution would be a game changer. It is my STRONG belief that Motorola signing means that Apple is coming to the table and will be a catalyst for this stock like it was for IDCC.
Apple:
1. 125M trial win - 85 Million award plus interest and legal fees
2. 75M for sales since coverage period - 150M phones sold since the period covered in the trial judgment
3. 40-50m future sales - for phones sold for next 4 years depending on sales levels until patents expire
Total Apple judgment worth $360-$400m USD or ~$450-520M CAD
Other LTE phone makers as WiLan LTE Portfolio virtually unlicensed.
1. Previous sales: $260 million of past sales from 520 million non iPhone smartphones
2. future sales: $60-80 million per year of non iPhone sales
Total non iPhone value applying $0.50/unit rate is $500-580M USD or $650-750M CAD
TOTAL VALUE of $0.50 / unit is around $1.1-1.2B CAD.