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RMP ENERGY INC T.RMP

"Iron Bridge Resources Inc, formerly RMP Energy Inc is a crude oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration for, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids in Western Canada."


TSX:RMP - Post by User

Post by viennaon Aug 15, 2015 12:34pm
282 Views
Post# 24021485

National Bank Leaves Target unchanged at $3

National Bank Leaves Target unchanged at $3Event Mixed: RMP reported Q2/15 results, revised 2015guidance and provided investors with an operational update. In our view, news of a sizable CFPS beat (~15% above consensus)was more than offset by a downward revision to 2015 guidance. Maintaining Outperform Rating and $3.00/share target price:RMP has and continues to face significant operational headwinds;however, the company continues to offer a sustainably-fundedgrowth outlook at a notably discounted relative valuation. RMPtrades at a 2015e EV/DACF of 2.9x vs. its peers at 5.9x Positive Waskahigan Results: So far, RMP has seen encouraging initial results through its implementation of slick water hybrid technology at Waskahigan. Of special note, two wells produced at IP30 rates in excess of 800 bbl/d, which is notably above type well expectations of ~600 bbl/d (two other wells have produced at or slightly better than type well). After five months of production, these wells were producing at rates of 280 bbl/d and 225 bbl/d and have each cumulatively produced over 50 mbbl. In addition to providing read-throughs to potentially improving capital efficiencies/economics at Waskahigan, these recent successes have also provided RMP with an expanded fairway of drilling prospects (the company pegs its inventory at 200+ locations, of which only 18 and 44 are booked as proved undeveloped and probable, respectively). Secondary Recovery at Ante Creek: Management is planning for the implementation of a secondary recovery scheme at Ante Creek (a pilot could be rolled-out as soon as Q1/16). Although we were given no indication of whether the pilot would involve the injection of water or gas, we are cautiously optimistic that the scheme will eventually aid in muting declines, all while increasing recovery factors (gas injection may be even more beneficial to RMP given the levels of solution gas). Step-Out Well Planned for the South Portion of Ante Creek: To help prove up the aerial extent of the Montney at Ante Creek, RMP has chosen to drill an exploration step-out well on the southern portion of its lands (drilling is expected to take place in Q4/15). Emerging New Area: RMP has accumulated 46 net sections (up from the 32 net sections stated previously) in an unknown area outside of Ante Creek and Waskahigan. Little details were given other than the company plans to commence drilling on the land this winter (we will look for licensing activity). 2016 Growth/Sustainability Outlook: Through 2016, we expect RMP will deploy $110 million, driving production to an annual average rate of 13.5 mboe/d. Our 2016 production forecast represents absolute y/y growth of 13%, or 14% on a debt-adjusted, per share basis (light oil peers at 13% DAPPS). Based on our 2016 estimates, this capital program should require spending of 109% of cash flow, resulting in a below-average D/CF of 1.2x (this compares with the light oil peer group average payout and D/CF of 114% and 3.9x, respectively). Non-Brokered Private Placement: Subsequent to the quarter, RMP closed a flow-through financing for total proceeds of $4.8 million Our target price is predicated on a valuation methodology that solely reflects a cash flow multiple and is correlated to an asset value perspective. For RMP, our target price is based on a 4.5x 2016e EV/DACF cash flow multiple (was 4.2x) that compares with the peer average EV/DACF target multiple of 7.9x. This target price compares with a P+P NAV of $2.84/share plus estimated risked resource upside of $0.16/share stemming from core plays. Unrisked value $10.39
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