RE:15% Quarterly Decline Rate(?), Growth & Debt in Dec 2017(?) I'm not able to view RMP's Waskahigan producers on Value Navigator right now but I'm thinking Montney producers that are a couple of years old will not exhibit high decline rates. Montney well declines, from my experience, start out initially very high but hyperbolic with a high "hyperbolic coefficient" of n between 0.6 to 2.0 depending on the quality of the rock (I've seen lots of wells behave harmonically with n=1.0). These wells typically become less hyperbolic in decline over time and more exponential (i.e. exponential is a fixed decline rate) but it seems that there is almost always still a lessening of decline over time. That these Montney producers never totally go exponential. So what does all this gobblygook mean to the average Joe? It means that a 60% annualized decline on Montney producers that have histories of 2yr+ sounds far far too high.
I know what you're looking at - the reduction from 3800 boe/d in Q3 to an exit of roughly 3250 boe/d at the end of Q4. Keep in mind that the 3800 number is the AVERAGE for Q3 and the 3250 number is estimated for the end of Q4 which gives a 4.5 month period or an annualized arithmetic decline of 39%. I'm guessing at this point but there may have been TCPL system interuptions or some other scheduled shut downs that account for the lower exit number. Hopefully there will be some details on what the exit rate actually was and why in the next press release. That's my kick at the cat. Hope I didn't confuse the h_ck outta you.