Post by
vienna on Aug 21, 2015 2:06pm
Thoughts?
Heres my take. I wouldnt listen to analysts when they kept reducing the target price and figured they got this all wrong but now multiple houses have revised this stock to $2 and I find myself with arms in the air wondering why this stock keeps dropping. So I stopped to listen rather than go against the grain because the analyst may not be right but they represent sentiment. I held onto RMP for the outstanding Q2 release but it didnt matter, analysts continue to reduce RMPs price based on reduced guidance and concerns over Ante creek while acknowledging their great balance sheet. So whats the chance of this bouncing any time soonzip. And what do you think is going to happen when Q3 results get released? Its gonna have poor results with the rest of the sector and no answer yet on their decline rates and reserves. RMP will pull back guidance again in face of the new reality, stock target will get reduced yet again but it will survive. Dont get me wrong, I like this company and I have full intention of buying back in when theyve proven their reserves and reduce their decline rates by unveiling their new acreage and releasing results of their secondary recovery pilot for ante creek. I sold at $1.50 but I intend to jump back in at $1 gaining 50% more units for the ride back up. The earliest I see this bouncing is Q1 of next year, in the meantime I see a scary ride to $1. Supply is at 80 year highs, China is falling apart, oil is most likely going to hangout in the $30s for Sept/Oct., fed might raise rates in Sept, banks will be reviewing credits shortly and there will be a panic slide down. Until there is complete capitulation and the Saudis stop this game, oil is going nowhere but south and Iranian oil is also an unknown. With oil in the $30s this is scary for RMP since they sold their oil hedges. I dont know if I have to wait until Q1 but Q3 definitely isnt going to be pretty. Will my strategy work? Will I miss an opportunity for a takeout? I dont know but praying on a takeout in the face of all these negatives seems like too much hope. Im going to wait it out for 2 months and see what happens. Other companies will fall way before RMP and I want to hear about bankruptcies and M&As in the market before jumping back into RMP. I think the stock will just bounce around here for awhile. I welcome others point of view as long as its respectful. Does anyone else share my concerns over Q3? Do you think RMP will reduce guidance again after Q3 results knowing their projections are based on $46 WTI and they are unhedged?
Comment by
flipher on Aug 21, 2015 5:07pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by
vienna on Aug 21, 2015 8:53pm
Flipper that 1 star rating wasn't me. I wish I got out earlier with you. Anyway I hope we can get back in soon. I tried googling for info on the new tax but didn't see anything. It would be definitely another obstacle and NDPs aren't pulling back on their royalty reviews.