valuationLots of interesting thoughts on what RVX is worth.
To me the obvious first step is defining WHEN you are talking about while assigning value. To put some bookends on a valuation for myself I am using the analyst report from a little while back as a current value and some math I did in a mid-march post as a future, post successful ph3, value. The analyst report as we know put an NPV of $5.87 on RVX (going by memory here) after what I thought was significant discounting. This would imply a market cap of about $.5B today if we were at $5.87. Obviously what we are currently trading at is still below this threshold. On my mid-march post I used some basic math based on numbers I obtained from speaking with RVX and came to the conclusion that as a drug for sale that the RVX-208/rosuvastatin combo would generate about $3.8B dollars annually for every 1% market share capture of it's worldwide target market. From this I think RVX after a successful ph3 (I can't stress the IF dynamic enough here) that RVX could be an 8-10 Billion dollar pipeline asset for a major pharma. Speaking with someone I know who has been in business development roles at a few big pharma's, he told me that based on those numbers (which he thinks are realistic) he thought that would bring RVX a market cap valuation of about 20-30% of the pipeline asset value. Thusly my post successful ph3 stock price estimate is roughly $20-$30 CDN. Probably closer to the low end allowing for some dilution to complete ph3. Who knows however, how desparate AZN might become should RVX succeed in ph3. To further support my assumptions I look at Esperion with a roughly $2B USD market cap. To be sure, Esperion has had a much smoother trial route to it's current pre ph3 status and has a NASDAQ listing which gives it much greater exposure. I think, however, as a drug that is at least initially aiming at statin intolerant patients it's potential market may be more limited than RVX's should each succeed in ph3. So is Esperion really worth roughly +20x RVX?
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I think that a good thing for RVX right now is that every day more is being understood about the importance of epigenetics by the biotech world in general and thus putting RVX in an increasingly favorable light. I also think that RVX is in a bit of a sweet spot, as I think Priceless mentioned, as it has quite a long window to productively manage it's message while not having to report any results and I expect a bump soon with the announcement of official ph3 status. It would not suprise me to see an $8-$10 sp in the not so distant future and perhaps more if RVX does obtain a NASDAQ listing which is now in the realm of possibility. All of course JMO