RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Unfortunate timing - Nicholls article on RVX - 09/15Some good discussion here IMO so just thought I would try to add to it.
-regarding the publication of Nicholls summary, I agree with BDAZ that the summary publishing is part of good practice. I also agree that it is too bad that the MACE results weren't part of the summary, as BDAZ pointed out MACE was a predifined secondary end point. I don't think this publication was a bad thing as anyone who is even somewhat serious about biotech investing will also be looking for the post hoc analysis and other information regarding RVX and then make a decision on the whole of the information available. Given that it is well known that RVX is expecting more analyst coverage many investors may be waiting for more expert opinion before making a decision. I think that perhaps the low volume of trading reflects a wait and see attitude of both buyers and sellers at this point. Personally I am hoping to pick up some cheap shares during tax loss selling and if the low volume persists the price may have some decent spikes down during this time. I guess we will see how many others are circling around waiting for the same thing :)
-WRT 5 point vs 3 point MACE, I'm not a statistics expert but I'm not sure why anyone would be suprised that a trial powered for 5 point MACE would not have a statistically significantly result for 3 point MACE. Something to keep in mind however is that we are dealing with a sick patient population and in a longer trial many people who only qualified in the now excluded two MACE points would qualify to a 3 point standard with the progression of disease over time. The other obvious point is that BetOnMace will be properly powered for 3 point MACE. Something else to remember is that 5 point MACE was not something that RVX made up to sneak in the door, if memory serves me the CETP inhibitor trials were based on 5 point MACE which to me makes that accepted industry standard.
-As far as the RVX story being old and the share price trading being therefore predictable. JMO but I think there are enough new potential avenues between now and end of BetOnMace to potentially give this story some real push. For starters, if the company can make some headway on either kidney disease and/or as a threat to Soliris this could result in a huge upward rerating of RVX stock. One of the things that struck me most in the post hoc was the improvement in eGFR. Kidney disease is a huge and extremely costly problem and, as Dr Kalanter-Zadeh pointed out in his part of the NY presentation, one with no real answers aside from the costly ones of dialysis or transplant. Check out the potential market size on kidney.org, staggering. If RVX proves to be a threat to Soliris who knows what the reaction from Alexion might be. If's for sure but IMO enough to keep this interesting.