RE:RE:Référence price for 4th quarterThanks Contrarian.
For FCF, one needs to take Ebitda (which includes C$50mm of corp o/h) and deduct Cash Int Exp (~23mm) less Taxes (~50mm) less Capex (~75mm) = C$252mm of FCF.
Bonds o/s = ~C$300mm. Meaning, by YE23, they could pay out almost all bonds with FCF. And then if there is a release of WC at Moa, that upstream of WC is additive to the Dividends and FCF stated above.
Remember, S is effectively a holdco. Moa is the opco. Everything S makes is an upstream (both Dividends and WC) from Moa.
And if you look at valuation, at ~$300mm of bonds at roughly .83 = $250mm (cuffed) and the stock at .62 = $250mm you get ~$500mm of EV / C$400mm of Ebitda = 1.25x. (and this iexcludes all cash including cash in Canada to be ultra-conservative). Meaning, some Chinese co can buy S today for C$500mm and after 1.25 years of Ebitda, they would own the mine oprations and the cash flow free and clear for the next 25 years. Unless one thinks there is no need for Ni and Co for the next 25yrs. Think about that for a second. Oil cos in Canada trade at 3x and most woke idiots think there will be no use for pertrochemicals ever again in a few years. S should trade at 5x today which would put the stock closer to C$5.00...and maybe a higher multiple should be attached to it.
All hinges on the price of Ni and Co, of course, but I think it is fair to say there is a tailwind on tht front.