National Bank - Year AheadThis report is astonishing/baffling for a number of reasons (see below). Basically despite vastly improving metrics and forcasts, and despite a small NAV increase, we nevertheless received a small cut from $.80 to $.75.
Here are the factors listed in the report that ought to have boosted us:
1) Significant improvement to Ni and Co price forcasts:
Ni 2022, 23, 24, 25, 26, Long term
Old $10.00, $10.00, $9.00, $9.00, $8.00, $8.00
New $11.61, $13.75, $13.75, $12.00, $12.00, $8.50
Co - basically drops a bit but long term remains $20.00
2) Radically increased EBITDA, EPS, CFPS
EBITDA 2022, 23, 24
Old: $241mil, $180mil, $165mil
New: $259mil, $340mil, $350mil
EPS 2022, 23, 24
Old: $.23, $0.05, $.02
New: $.27, $.40, $.43
CFPS 2022, 23, 24
Old: $.09, $.01, $.07
New: $.14, $.40, $51
(yup, you are reading that correctly, 2024 CFPS basically equals todays share price)
3) Nagle took the $90mil debt retire into account
4) NAVPS increases from $1.55 to $1.62 and multiple remains 0.65
Despite all this we get a chop from $.80 to $0.75... WHAT??!!
Nagle is preoccupied with 4 factors he does not quantify in any way:
1) ongoing debt commitments
2) clarity needed on Moa expansion
3) declining fertilizer off-sets
4) "Moa grade profile impacted by mine operations prepping for expansion work"
Go figure....
I image we get a BIG upgrade after financials come out in second week of Feb.....