Interview - Eye of the Beholder
Finally sat back and watched the interview. Thanks for posting, btw.
It's normal that different people will hear or place emphasis on different things. What impressed me was just how long it's going to be for this company to be a producer. The amount of forward planning involved in organizing a sealift is such that even if they had financing fall onto their plate this afternoon, it's too late to start construction in 2020. If we assume it will take 2 sealift seasons to get stuff to the Arctic coast, then onsite construction could start early '22 for stuff delivered on the August '21 lift. So perhaps this could be a producer in 2024.
I also heard that of the original estimate of $425 or was it $450 million US, some of that initial capex could be moved down the calendar as sustaining capex, but because they were planning for fixed price contracts, other parts of the original plan are going to be a fair amount pricier, though less risky.
They have the term sheet for the debt financing from their preferred lender. Leaves open the question as to just what amount of equity needs to be raised. I'm guessing $200 million US. It was mentioned several times that this stage company should trade at .7 X NAV versus current .4 X. I interpret this to mean that the company would not raise equity until the price achieved was 75% higher than at time of interview, about $1.75. So, $3.05 neighbourhood. How this logic fits with last year's placement at $1.25 I'll leave to those on a higher payscale than mine!
Good luck to you people.