RE:Price drivers...US rig counts don't mean much anymore . The large majority of wells are horizontal and drilled off a pad . They will drill multiple wells from a pad while the rig is hired and then leave them for completion. The completion cost , meaning fracturing , injecting san, etc. is about 80 % or the total cost . So if you are looking for an indication of production decline monitor the fracking activity . I'm not saying you're wrong , just that active drilling is not a reliable indicator .