RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Ford provides an escape hatch I generally agree with your points.
LTC is supply constrained today and increasingly so looking ahead. I think the wait list number cited by Sienna was 38,000 people. Government doesn't have the money, infrastructure, training or incentive to take over large swaths of this industry.
If anything, the movement towards more hours spent per resident per day (from 2.75 to 4 over next few years) announced yesterday by Ford will require more funding for private operators to meet this threshold.
The Covid overhang has no doubt acted as an inhibitor for potential new entrants into this space (given the regiment of rules and regulations associated, coupled with more difficult to finance for a newbie), which benefits the incumbents. I also believe that scale is even more important and consolidation could occur .
The Retirement side of the business is well positioned demographically, with the age of Baby Boomers and their relative wealth (equity in family homes and pension benefits). While temporarily stifled due to Covid, this will swing back and occupancy will rise.
Sienna - Higher barriers to entry, more govt funding, demographic tailwinds and a track record of generating good cash flow. I don't think it remains as an 8 percent yield for the foreseeable future .
good luck...