RE:Thoughts on SKE going forward.....You make only passing reference to financing...with reassuring words about it'll all get sorted out.
While I agree entirely that the stock is oversold and due or overdue for a rebound, IMO there's still a very big disappointment yet to visit our doorstep. We all know this is coming: a $200 million equity raise, most likely in the spring.
I used to think that they would price the new issue at around $6.10 to net $5.75 per share. But given the dreadful track record of management in negotiating pricing, you would have to make allowance for the price to be at or very near the lowest the stock has seen in the preceeding 12 months. So, if we bounce off this $4.50 level and rally back to the $5-$6 neighbourhood, it would be realistic to expect the new issue at approx. $4.50 to net $4.18
If the $200 million equity is in Cdn $, that will require 47.8 million shares dilution, about 50%.
It's probably more realistic to expect the currency to be US $. Therefore, $272 million (Cdn) at same $4.50 for an issue of about 60.5 million new shares, about 64% dilution. These are pretty big numbers for the Cdn market to handle, but probably doable if the discount is seen to be similarly big.
Recall that the last issue they did at $7.30. Immediately prior, the stock had been in the high $9's. So the issue was done at about a 25% discount to the recent price of neighbourhood $9.70. So we need to get back to ballpark $6 in order to swing a $4.50 bot deal. Seeing as this deal will be for about 4 X the money as last time, this could be tricky.
Other than the money, everything else looks great.