versus estimatesReuters estimates
Revenue 906 vs 881 est
Gross margin 42% vs 43.4% est
Ebitda 402m vs 356m est
Ebitda margin 44% vs 40.5% est
Net income $268m vs $244m est (may be $269m, depends on adjustments)
EPS $3.61 vs $3.31 est
Some of these may not be comparable because of adjustments but overall $3.61 is still $3.61. The current quarter is looking like $7 if they can get shipments back to 650k. We'll wait for more color on that in the conference call.
Then if shipments can hold steady near 700K in Q3 and Q4 and the strip bears out, that's around $4 each quarter so that's around $18.41 for the year versus $13.99 consensus. (and $10.61 in just two quarters)
The consensus drops to $7.97 next year for the full year and $4.40 the year after.
Bottom line: It's all about steel prices. They can drop 40-50% from here and still earn its entire market cap in 3 years (and never mind the $760m in cash on hand, land for sale, etc).
As far as I see it, this is a $4/share per quarter company. Put a 5x multiple on that and it's $80. Hope they can buy some more shares before the market figures it out because I'm in no rush.