RE:RE:RE:RE:EIA: Us Proven oil reserves down by 19%, from 2019 to 2020I'm not a middle east expert, but from what I know, I don't see a deal happening.
The Iranian regime is the enemy of the US, Israel, Saudis, Israel, and many gulf producers. Iran has also proven they can't be trusted. Regime change is their goal, and it is less likely with a well fed and content population, so the people still suffer bearing the brunt of sanctions.
Many countries want Iranian oil kept off the market to keep prices up, although a deal may only add a small million or 2 additional bbls onto the market due to so much sneaking past sanctions already, as well as the poor infrastructure from decades of sanctions.
The Chinese get discounted Iranian oil, although they oppose and don't recognize western sanctions. So it seems to be still working well for them. It also forces Iran to deal with China in many other matters, and China takes full advantage of this, as there are few other alternatives for Iran to deal with.
Anything that may benefit Iran is opposed by Israel, which Iran wants to wipe from the face of the earth. Israel has been clear that it will take offensive action on its own to prevent Iran from ever getting a working nuclear bomb.
Iran is fighting a proxy war with the Saudis in Yemen, the world's worst humanitarian crises. With additional cash available from a deal, that war and other Iranian actions are likely to get worse, and give them additional capabilities to attack Saudi oil infrastructure. This is not good for the Saudis.
Of course, other countries like those in the EU would lke a deal made in the hopes of ensuring future peace, but too many others benefit now by no deal. It is easier to kick the can down the road and keep Iran from developing a nuclear bomb by future air strikes.
Until that balance shifts, talks will continue, with both sides refusing to reach an agreement.
Meanwhile, oil prices march higher.
NPCexe wrote: US will make a deal with Iran in 2022. Unless Iran and Saudi's relationship means another deal will be made to make the US beg for oil
LiLy2021 wrote:
MaximusGainus wrote: Wow. If this data is true, it does explain why Biden is pushing his energy transition so hard and telling other countries to increase their production, instead of getting the US domestic energy producers to ramp up. They know they will need every drop of oil for the future as the US is quickly running out.
It's not just the US. I follow China very closely ;-). I read everything about it. China is also in dire straits. Its ambition is to overtake the world and be the number one economy. It can't get there without meeting the demand for oil and no oil means no economic growth. China has been sitting on hot stove and that explains my hyperactivity (oh gosh!) on oil. It's also been ramping up all kinds of crazy activities in the South China Sea for God-knows-what.
I can't believe that oil is not reaching $100 soon.