Here is What I SeeGreat discussion folks.
Soooo...what am I looking at?
1.....Canary in the Coal Mine
AMZN's outlook doesn't look good and they are into everything for consumers
2.....Inflation
As I posted before, inflation expectations are rising just like they did in the 1970s. Wage inflation will force the US Fed to raise rates by another 200 basis points or more.
3....Ukraine
Russia is going to blockade Ukrainian wheat and corn. These exports are essentially storage from 2021 since very little was produced in the Ukraine in 2022 and the prospect of the war continung into next year means another year of non production of wheat and corn which will trigger continuing upward pressure on world food prices. Corn, like oil, is in almost everything.
4....US Elections
In the US, the Republicans are all but assured of controlling The House and with a couple of key wins in Georgia, AZ and Pennsylvania are within a hair of winning control of the Senate. If this happens then the US will be in a stalemate and nothing will get done.
5....China
Chinese growth is forecasted at 3% over the next year so it will no longer be the world engine of growth. The lower growth rate plus the coronation of Xi sets the table for an invasion of Taiwan by China. Even if this becomes a protracted war like what is going in Ukraine, there will be a world-wide shortage of semiconductors which will bring the world economy to a halt.
Could all of these things not happen or get resolved?
Yep...perhaps
But call me a chicken sheet, with all that going on, I am quite content to sit on the sidelines until the smoke clears.