Experienced wrote:
I agree, mrbb, that the Government should leave well enough alone and let the natural market forces do the work. When Governments get involved, history has shown that they screw things up and the same will happen during this transition.
Getting back to the issue of oil and future oil demand, there is clearly a difference of opinion here and IMO that is nothing of short of wonderful. Differences of opinion is what makes a market. If everyone thought the same there wouldn't be a market.
Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that in a way both sides of the argument are right - there is a massive move to EVs which offset by growing use of oil in the 3rd world and world oil demand and prices for the foreseable future stays flat. The question then becomes as investors which would you rather own, a company whose revenues while great stay constant or perhaps rise with inflation, or a company that is growing its revenues well in excess of inflation? I can tell you right now I would vote for the latter which is something I have done for 50 years and it has paid off for me. Did I get it right every time? NOPE, but the winners more than outweighed the losses from the losers.
The way I see it, the world is changing as it has since since history began. The challenge today as investors is that the speed of that change is accelerating. Investors that see where the change is going and invest accordingly make a lot of money. Those that ignore or fight the change don't do as well. It is a simple fact. As an example, based on advice from engineer friends that were working on the digital switch at Nortel in the 1970s who told me that this technology would allow for the convergence of many technologies and would change the world, I bought in and ended up owning many companies over the years that grew like wildfire. Conversely, people who either didn't see this change or were deniers, lost money by investing in companies that were declining or whose revenues stayed flat. IMO, the same thing is happening today in regard to EVs and renewable energy in general and in companies that are developing technologies to solve the problems associated with this transition. This is where a growing proportion of my investments are going.
The world in the future is going to look at lot different than it does today. Either you accept that fact or not and invest accordingly or you don't. The choice is up to you. Over my lifetime I have seen so much change that I know where my vote is going.
And....if I may....in regards to Africa buying old ICEs from the West, I ask the question - "Did Africa buy all the old analog switches that the West didn't need anymore or did they skip that step and go directly to cell phones (digital switches)?