RE:RE:More on Global Oil Demand Going ForwardI think the debate between supply or demand destruction misses a critical point.
The topic of future energy consumption is improperly being framed as a transition. As if energy consumption is a zero sum game that requires a loser for every winner.
Viewing future energy use as a transition is an overly simplistic paradigm that will lead to below average investment returns. Humanity is in fact, experiencing an energy EXPANSION!
Since this expansion is global in nature, one must think GLOBALLY!
Humanity requires ever increasing amounts of energy from all sources to increase the quality of life globally. Renewable power will increase globally, fossil fuel use will increase globally, as will nuclear power globally. It is critical that energy investors understand this basic fact. Energy use is expanding not transitioning.
The developed world may reduce a small amount of oil use in transportation, but the developing world (think India, Asia, etc.) will gladly consume any hydrocarbon that is properly priced.
Viewed globally, physical contraints such as resevoir depletion will indeed outpace demand destruction and cause the price volitilty mentioned by other posters. This price volitility will lead to energy substitution for those who have such choices available in the developed world. None of this volitility will change the basic fact that humanity requires continually increasing amounts of energy.
Energy It is not a zero sum game. Energy in all forms is essential and will be consumed in all forms until physically exhausted. Humanity demands such consumption.
Look at Europe today, massive coal consumption, massive LNG consumption, massive wind projects, massive solar projects, massive nuclear base load.
Humanity is in an energy EXPANSION, not a transition, Invest accordingly.
Cheers,
Nukester