RE:RE:RE:Adoption of New TechnologyExperienced,
Your paradigm regarding the demise of oil consumption is quite similar to those of agricultural investors during the beginning of the automotive age. As automobiles were mass produced, smart investors like yourself realized horse and buggies were soon to be history. As those astute investors embraced the automotive future, many of them equally shunned investing in horse related supply chains such as hay production.
The funny thing about investing is one can both be right and wrong about various aspects of any given industry. We all have those failed trades we try hard to forget :-)
Just for fun, lets take the case of U.S. hay production from 1919 until 2017. While this is a bit simplistic, please bear with me as I am ignoring prices and concentrating on production, I hope you see my point. Please see the chart below:
Hay production did in fact declince during the advent of the automotive age, one can imagine several reasons, WW1, Great Depression, etc.
Look at the chart around 1945, the post WW2 boom was truly the beginning of mass production of automobiles across the globe. Based on the chart starting post WW2 at 1945, did Hay production crumble as automobiles rumbled across newly built post WW2 highways ? NOPE :-)
As individual economies boomed across the globe in post WW2, hay production increased as did oil production.
My long winded point being: Oil production / consumption is global and the very basis upon which modern humanity is built. In my opinion it would be inaccurate to assume oil use will materially fade away with the addition of EV's. Surely EV's will displace some consumption, but this will be negated by natural reservoir depletion, further complicated by lack of investment in future production, not to mention the myriad other uses for oil not mentioned for brevity.
As was stated above, it is possible to be right and wrong about the same industry :-)
I humbly suggest you tweak your macro thesis regarding the demise of oil globally.
There is much more to oil consumption than EV's and low carbon blue jeans.
While you are right about many of the headwinds oil faces, lack of consumption will not be an issue over our respective investing timelines.
Humby submitted,
Nukester