RE:RE:Oil Swami Nuttall gives nod to SuncorAt the risk of sounding self serving or braggy, here goes.
I made my first investment in the stock market in August 1969. That's almost 54 years ago (gawd). Probably before many of you here were even born. During that time period, I have made a lot of money through my investments. My success over this half century has, yes, been helped by some lucky timing from time to time. But mostly my success has been achieved through being a pragmatic investor and trying to visualize where the world is going and simply "going with the flow". In a way it is really the same strategy as Wayne Gretzky used in hockey. When he was asked what he attributed his success to, he answered "I go to where the puck is going, not to where it is".
So when I look at the world today and the changes in store for it, I am constantly reminded of all of the changes that I have seen since I started investing. So many things that I use today didn't exist back then. There are countless more changes since I was a child. So like Gretzky, I try to figure out where the puck is going and get there to be ready to take the puck and score a goal.
Is that hard to do?
Yeah, You bet. Sure it is. Requires some imagination, the ability to think "outside the box", the ability to challenge conventional beliefs and thinking, the ability to discard the past and move on and accept change. The ability to be patient and confident in your decision and as Gretzky would do - wait for the play to develop. And finally, not the least of which is some hard work.
Do you end up some times in the wrong place?
Yeah. You bet!!
Will you get smucked from time to time?
Absolutely. Take the lesson learned and move on.
But one underlying fundamental principle exists. When you see a clear trend, don't invest against it!! Invest in the direction of the trend. Obscure seems to do a lot of research and reads a lot and is very knowledgeable. IMO, his views are certainly worth considering. I don't do much research at this point in my life (I used to). Frankly, I got better things to do with my time like riding my bicycle for 4-5 hours a day outside during the warmer months or escaping the winter and going somewhere warm like I did this past January spending a month in New Zealand hiking Maori tracks. So I don't know if EVs are going to take over the world in 2026 or 2030 or 2040, but I do know it is going to happen at some time. The same goes for other technologies that will reduce the world's dependence on oil. In simple terms that is where the money all around the world is going and shaping where the world is going. That is where the puck is going.
With that in mind, my investment portfolio has shifted from companies that are in the business of producing oil and selling oil based products to companies that are going to produce what the world will use/need in the future (going to where the puck is going) and also companies that are finding solutions to the inevitable problems associated with the transition to this "brave new world". Yes from time to time there will be short term opportunities to make some money invested in oil companies due to temporary price inefficiences. I have recently made that assessment and bought some oil stocks in the hope of a short term gain (we will see how that works out). But the emphasis here is on temporary.
As many of you know from reading my posts, I was in "the business" as an investment advisor before I retired about a dozen years ago. During those years, I saw people who I called "deniers of change" and those that I called "acceptors of change". Guess who made money and guess who didn't?
One thing I know for sure is that the younger you are, the more change there is ahead of you and if anything, the rate of that change is getting faster each year. So even though I have seen many changes there is no doubt in my mind that you will see even more than I have. If you don't accept accept that simple fact and invest accordingly, it will be a lot harder to meet your investment objectives.
Take this advice or not -up to you - it's your money.....