RE:RE:RE:Oil Swami Nuttall gives nod to SuncorGreat and thorough post as usual Migraine.
As I mentioned in my earlier post, I no longer do the indepth analysis that you and Obscure do (or for that matter many others who post and share their thoughts here). But what I do have is a half century of experience investing and also experience as being "one of them" in the industry.
From this perspective, my reaction to your post is actually quite simple. While much of what you say makes sense I agree has a high probability of happening, the fact of the matter is that these points are not really a secret to the big money people that work on The Street. They have digested this information and the current stock price takes all these points into consideration. So for the SP to double as the "Cramer wannabe" suggests, there would have to be some significant event that nobody figured or imagined would happen in a very positive way.
Over the years I have seen countless people say if this or that happens then the SP will pop and it rarely does because people have already thought about it and it is already factored into the existing price.
Not saying you are wrong, but my experience suggests that you somewhat overly optimistic about all this and that is fine. For me, I bought some oil stocks recently because the basic economics which I talked last year when the oil price was above hundred was that the oil price would move to its full cost of production (including the Saudi social costs) which is in and around 80-85 a barrel. So now that it is significantly below that figure I see the oil price moving to that level just as I predicted that it would go from 120 a barrel to 85 last year. So if I am right about this and the price gets into the 80s, I will be selling my recently acquired oil stocks for a modest gain.