RE:RE:Both SU and COP Played The Sitting The Partners Out Game "HSE tried (and failed) to steal MEG."
I disagree with this one too
I was a HSE investor for many years.
I was more than happy when HSE offer to buy MEG at $11 on Sept 30, 2018 because HSE has the spare downstream capacity to soak up MEG's production.
MEG peaked on July 10, 2018 closing at $11.30. Then MEG dropped to 6.94 on Sep 14, 2018. A $11 bid by Husky was clearly fair at that time, a 57% premium over the laggard price of ~$7.00 after the July peak. HSE had based on the July peak price for their offer, i know because i had inside info.
MEG didn't like the offer because it wasn't the right time to sell and not to a chinese owner. What made HSE to back out the deal is the destructive NDP premier Notley imposing production curtailment on alberta producers. This crazy law benefited CVE, CNQ and MEG (and those) who has little to no downstream upgrading while hurting SU, HSE and IMO who have downstream upgrading to reap the great differential with cheap feedstock
MEG closed $1.22 on March 27, 2020. That $11 bid by HSE look awfully good. MEG didn't get back to $11 until Oct 19, 2021, about 3 years after HSE's $11 bid offer.
On another note, wish i had load up MEG at a buck something, it's a dream to have a 20+ bagger in 2 years time. I had a friend who bought MEG at 2.5 and sold at 5, thinking he pulled a great trade only to be sadden to see to go to 20+