RE:Can't win.....lol....Matt
Couple of points...
1....if you (unlike me) believe in the long term prospects for oil and oil companies then none of this should matter to you
2...when things don't make sense then that is a good reason to go the other way in terms of investment decisions except when market conditions are as expressed in the next paragraph.
That said, as I have been talking about in many posts, the overall market sentiment is in the Excessive Greed category and that usually signals a top is near. The "Grownups" on The Street have had a full court press in the last month talking up the market while taking profits so the Excessive Greed has been fueled primarily by retail investors and a bit of window dressing by the fund managers. It is just a matter of time before (and I have seen the beginnings of it in the last week) before the Grownups start talking the market down to pessimism so they can reload. As well, a new quarter has started and so the fund managers can make adjustments long before they report the next quarter results.
Me?
I'm not that smart, and, at my age lazy, so I just watch what the Grownups are doing and follow their lead. So in my case I am overweight cash and fixed income and underweight equities.
In terms of oils, I am waiting patiently on the sidelines as I expect that sometime between now and the end of the year there will be an opportunity to load up for a short term swing and make some outsized gains