RE:RE:RE:WTI $95 tomorrow?liljohnny....good points
From my perspective and historical experience, Israel, Hamas (Gaza) and Hezbollah (Lebanon) can pound the living sheet out of each other but it will have no impact on world demand or supply of energy.
The only real thing that can affect this equation is if in Biden's speech this evening he either re-implements the Trump era sanctions on Iranian oil exports or at least hints that he will do so. If this were to happen then at least a million BPD or more will be taken out of the oil supply and we would see a massive rise in the price of oil.
If he were to do this then as you point out, there would be a recession and his chances for re-election go out the window. For this reason, plus his general "soft on Iran" policy, suggests to me that he won't go the sanction route.
So if this proves to be true, then a big rise in the price of oil would be pure manipulation by The Street and if you own oil stocks it would be a great time to cash in.