Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

A couple of thoughts

[Obscure1]

The loonie is falling these days as the price of oil drops.  That means that we may see a significant Q3 paper loss on currency exchange as a big chunck of the debt is denominated in US dollars.  When one factors in the lower price of oil, and the setback at Fort Hills, and perhaps a bit of a delta driven slowdown (due to supply chain issues, not domestic consumption as Canadians are avid supporters of the vaccine) maybe the second half of the year won't be as profitable as mgmt guided while they delivered the Q2 financials. 

So far, the analysts haven't down graded targets due to the effect of lower oil prices.  You might want to keep an eye out for the next report from Travis Wood, the analyst from National Bank.  He typically provides target updates on SU far more often than his peers. He doesn't adjust his models with his updates, but his target revisions typically provide an indicaton of sentiment from macro events.

I wonder if anyone has ever pointed to Trudeau that the direction of the loonie is closely tied to the price of oil, or maybe they have tried but he doesn't get it.  Perhaps the substitute teacher will eventually grasp the concept of how important oil is to Canada...nah....never going to happen.

[Skysohigh]

Wouldn't the currency issue be more or less canceled out by a good chunk of SU's revenue being is USD?

[Obscure1]

Sky:  I started to address that issue in my post and decided that it would get too complicated.  To understand the effect, one would have to know how much was being sold to whom and at what price.  On top of that, one would need to have knowledge of all of the inter-company dealings and what effect they would have.  For a fully integrated company like SU, I imagine the

[mmuloin]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but SU also gets paid in USD and can directly apply some cash flow to paying down debt in USD.  Furthermore, when the profits are converted to CAD on the income statement, the USD to CAD conversion after a drop in CAD, results in a CAD gain on the quaterly statement.