Post by
Clemxb7 on Jun 26, 2022 1:27pm
Net Profit up ~$.65 share Q2/Q1 to $2.75 /share FPE=~4
Assumptions: WTI averaged $109 USD Q2, WCS = $97 Q2 Crack spread = $46 Q2
Rough calculation:
Oil price + $14 Q2/Q1 Suncor produces 766k/day x $14 x 91 x 1.29 = $1.26 billion extra revenues
Cracking: + $17 Q2/Q1 Suncor cracks 436.5k/day x 17 x 91 x 1.29 = $.871 billion extra revenues
Total revenue increase from higher oil prices Q2/Q1 = $2.13 billion.
From my very rough eyeballing about 43% of that extra revenue should become net profit or $.932 billion / 1.4 billion (shares out). = +$.65 on the quarter.
Profit should increase ~1.5% over Q1 due to share buybacks. Q1 earnings should adjust to 2.07 x 1.015 = $2.10.
TTM = Earnings per share = $6.87 = TTM PE = 6.90 Forward PE = 4.
Consensus is $2.34 so I will say Suncor will beat this quarter - possibly by a lot.
I realize these are not highly scientific calculations and do not include any additional profits from Petrocan though they should give a decent indication of what kind of numbers we may be looking at.