Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Buy or wait?

[Obscure1]

WTI has tipped below $90

At what point do you just tap your finger down on the BUY key?

When you do buy, will it be SU or MEG or something else?

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[Experienced]

Great questions!! A number of months ago, I talked about how I saw the price of oil moving back to the marginal cost of production and based on the full cost (production plus social) for the Saudis, I saw that number as being somewhere in the mid 80s.  We are now approaching that number on WTI. Recently I bought a small underweight position in SU with a view that I would increase that

[MigraineCall]

Clearly negative sentiment has taken over the paper oil market, which is 10 times bigger than the tight physical oil market. We may well see a lot more downside. However, I''m not buying the statement that EIA says there was a massive 7% demand drop in gasoline last week. Less fuel than demand than during summer COVID 2020?  Come on... It will wash out in future reports. EIA counts

[Obscure1]

Great comments guys as usual. Migraine:  You mentioned that MEG should be a $60 stock in a normal market.  What is a normal market?  Why is MEG trading at 25% of $60?  These are honest questions?  I can look at the anticipated new Tesla production numbers for Giga Shanghai at 4,000 vehicles per week (insane) beginning next week and do the math. I can build in their

[Experienced]

Curiously, in a way you answered your own question in your post.... The TSLA numbers you quoted plus what ever the numbers are from their other factories plus what the other auto manufacturers produce represent a reduction in oil demand  for gasoline and oil based products such as engine oil.   Oil will not be part of the increased demand for electricity from more EVs in the auto stock

[MaximusGainus]

Re MEG, and many other oil stocks, they are being severely discounted. For companies with decades of reserves, with reasonable debt, low costs, and in a normal priced oil market, the multiples should be at least 3x as much as they are now, using many different ways and valuation calculations. Yet the market thinks the end of the world is coming for oil in 3 years, and these companies are priced

[MigraineCall]

Yes, great points. MEG is severly undervalued, especially when I think of it's place in the future where oil supply is scarce as we reach maximum supply. I watched that video link as well, good info.  Yes there will be EVs, but for a long while, they will be an addition to the vehicle mix, and not entirely replacing ICE for a while, especially on a global scale. I'm licking my

[Experienced]

Yep Over the years whenever I saw the buffalo herd going full tilt running towards the cliff, I stepped aside and watched the carnage from the top of the cliff, dusted off my clothes and bought the buffalo meat on sale. Similarly, sometimes the market celebrates something that spells of bad times ahead.  Back in the runup to the "Great Recession" Obama announced a 800 billion

[teebore]

I have been playing the swing with Vermillion and Baytex with relative success. Trying to figure out new entry points, but there seems to be so many moving parts that are affecting my thinking ... Iran talks, mid-terms etc.