Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

November "might" be the start of the Suncor bull

[Clemxb7]

So anybody up for some speculations?

• Suncor sold some projects and will get proceeds of about $850 million this quarter.
• Suncor slowed the stock buybacks in August and July to shift the focus to paying down debt.
• In the second quarter they spent 2.5 billion CAD on buybacks (and the stock price reflected it).
• In the second quarter they paid down about a billion CAD in debt.
• So in the second quarter Suncor spent $3.5 billion on debt and stock buybacks.
• So far this quarter (July and August) they have spent $825 million buying back shares.
• My personal opinion is Suncor will have FCF close though short of Q2 
• If we assume that Suncor will have 3+ billion to put towards debt and of that 1.25 billion will end up going towards buybacks
• Then in total including the proceeds from the sale of the projects Suncor will put somewhere around $2.75 billion towards debt repayment.
• At June 30th Suncor owed 15.5 billion $ CAD and have stated they will put 75% of the debt/stock buyback money towards buybacks when net debt equals 12 billion.
• At September 30th they should owe around 12.75 billion.
• By November 1 the 12 billion $ threshold should be met.
• 75% of the debt/buyback money will now go towards buybacks.
• In Q2 the money allotted for buybacks and Debt was $3.5 billion. (Q3 ~3+billion)
• in Q4 Suncor will spend around 2.75 billion on buybacks. (if they have similar quarters to Q2 and Q3.)
• After November 75% of free cash will go towards buybacks so that like Suncor always is spending money on buybacks like May and June. 
• November also has larger macro implications like then ending of the SPR.

[Clemxb7]

I forgot to mention where I got that awesome Excel sheet from so here is a link to the tweet from @gugo907 If you like Cnd O&G numbers he’s worth a follow. https://twitter.com/Gugo907/status/1567179143900430337