Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

Fact and Fiction - Where is the world Going?

[Experienced]

Nice to see a spirited debate on renewables and oil....warms my heart...

But let's get down to where all this leads us as investors....just starting to write so I don't know if this will take one or two posts to get through everything.

Solar 

1.....costs have gone down and so have the costs of storage....BUT...in Ontario right now the cost to install sufficient solar panels to go off grid for a household is currently about 18-23K.  Net of the 5K Federal subsidy this is about 13-18K.  Based on the average usage in Ontario for a typical house, the payback is about 10-12 years.  This number is based on a rooftop system.  The roodtop system has to be cleaned and unless you do it yourself (at my age that is a no-no), you have to hire somebody to do it and this cost money and extends the payback period.  Perhaps in a few years the math will be different.  Right now the math is not compaelling.

Dispatchable Energy Electricity Production

1...this is the way of the future.  Such sources eliminate the need for grid expansion and protect businesses from power interuptions from the grid.  The systems under development (I have invested in one such private company and the cap value of the company is already 16X from what I paid for my shares two years ago) is based on natural gas and biogas with the possibility of using hydrogen if the math and technology issues get solved over time.  Notice that oil is not in this equation.

EVs

1....Like it or not most Governments in the developed world where most of the oil demand exists have legislated that new auto and truck sales by 2030 or 2035 will be 100% EVs.  This will make a huge dent in the demand for oil and will increase over time as ICEs become too old to be driven anymore.  Oil is not used in the production of electricty and so as oil demand for transportation declines, oil demand will decline.

2...billions of dollars are going into EV technology and just like what happened in the telecommunications industry, developing countries will use the new technology not the old.

I could go on but here is the bottom line as investors IMO...

A....the greatest returns come from investing in growth industries and oil is not one of them

B....the next big thing in terms of investing are industries/companies that are finding solutions to the inevitable problems associated with the transition to a less carbon centric world

C....the transition in Point B will take a while so oil companies won't go broke soon and low cost producers like SU and CNQ will do OK for a while but their future SP will lag other sectors.  See Point 1 under Dispatchable Energy

D....during this transition, there will be lots of volatility in the price of oil and so there will be shorter term opportunities to make money if you are nimble like Migraine but as a long term hold...not so much.

[autofocus111]

Solar shmolar.... Ontario is waking up to smell the coffee and looking at expanding its nuclear power generation.... both conventional large scale plants and SMRs. My money is on the proven conventional designs. TRP has a ~50% stake in Bruce Power, which has a mutli-year project in-progress to refurbish the reactor units there. >>>BRUCE COUNTY – The Ontario government is starting pre

[mrmomo]

Was about to post the same thing until i saw your post Autofocus. N-U-C-L-E-A-R is the answer Experienced is looking for and the solution to most of the world's problems. Not EVERYONE will be happy with it or be onboard BUT they will tolerate it given the alternatives. To see what a difference Nulclear company make, just look at the comparison between France & Germany. Both top toer 1

[autofocus111]

mrmomo It's a pity that the government dorpped the ball with Candu development at AECL. It was a good performing and reliable technology and had customers. SNC took the business over, but does not have the deep pockets needed to develop and market new versions. They contnue to make a go of it though... they are the prime contractor for the ongoing refurbishments of the Bruce Power reactors. It

[mrmomo]

Some very insightful comments Mr. Autofocus, thx for spending the time to share your thoughts the with the board. But just to put this thread to rest, i just want to add that i agree that in terms of Nuclear power gaining acceptance & growing, SMR's are the way forward. Their designs are much safer, easily maintained & less costly than the typical reactor built & that's been in

[autofocus111]

I was perplexed when Hydro Quebec shut down the Gentilly nuclear plant years ago. A huge investment apparently flushed down the drain for no good reason. Now miracle of miracles a restart is being contemplated. Finally some common sense. >>>In its quest to increase electricity production in Quebec, Hydro-Qubec is contemplating a move back to nuclear power.  The government-run

[corvette67]

Too bad Ontario wasn't bright enough to refurbish Pickering shut down reactors. GLTA

[autofocus111]

I think they'll end up doing the Pickering refurb. Ontario simply can't afford to lose that power. >>>“By the end of June, we will submit the application to amend our power reactor operating licence to operate Pickering Units 5, 6, 7 and 8 through September 2026,” said Neal Kelly, a spokesperson for OPG. Ontario’s plans to extend the life of Pickering’s plant to 2026 and then

[jx7000]

corvette, "Too bad Ontario wasn't bright enough to refurbish Pickering..." You don't know what you're talking about.

[lifeisgood1010]

I said it before, i live in Quebec and so far this year i had 2 power outage(3 and 2 days in April and July). I have had less than 10 in the past 35 years and they always accurred in the winter. So i guess that the light are flashing for the bureaucrates of Hydro Quebec. Not sure what the % of car run fully electric in my province but it as to be lower than 10%. So,imagine if we were to get to

[autofocus111]

Well there was an ice storm in the spring so on that one they have an excuse. The new CEO M.Sabia (who ran the Caisse and previously BCE) is behind this move on nuclear with the CAQ's blessing no doubt. Smart cookie that guy. The greenies are crying nimby but they will just have to grin and bear it.

[ztransforms173]

- this is what happens when you APPOINT POLITICAL APPOINTEES to KEY operating instititutions like the giant electric utility Hydro-Quebec - so the new President of Hydro-Quebec is a WEF operator with an ECONOMICS and POLITICS background who went from one CUSHY JOB to another - sure, he had GOOD MANAGERIAL experience in being in the Privy Council Office, CFO of Canadian National Railways, CEO of

[ztransforms173]

- what I DON'T LIKE is that SNC-LAVALIN is the parent company of CANDU ENERGY, the developer of the pressurized heavy-water reactor design and builder   - they have a PAST HISTORY of some SHADDY DEALINGS and PRICINGS - you can be sure that their SERVICE PRICING will be RICH and Canadian utilities will be WITHOUT ANY COMPETITION for the RE-BUILDING of any of the Candu reactors - Candu

[autofocus111]

You can thank former PM Stephen Harper for that. AECL/Candu should have remained a Crown Corp IMO.. >>>The federal government finally announced Wednesday a deal to divest itself of Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. and get out of the business of subsidizing nuclear reactor sales and servicing. Joe Oliver, the minister of natural resources, said at a news conference in Toronto that the Crown

[bttmfischer]

Is this the same lavalin group that was involved in a bribery charge a few years ago? I don't belive that ANY enrgy concern eligible of $75 million subsidy would go west of Hull Quebec.

[mrbb]

club member has its privileges

[jx7000]

I heard the news reports of this proposed expansion last week. I also heard that environmental assessments could or will take eight to ten years to complete. And then whatever does get approved, it won't be completed and commissioned for another ten years after that, if nothing goes wrong.

[meritmat]

Sounds right.  You can't get anything built in this country with out decades of red tape