Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

How long should I wait

[iMAnewBE]

For this Stock to catch up to its peers?  The 5 year comparison is why I bought last year.  I thought this thing might catch up but it never does.  Has something structural changed with this company compared to its peers?  I mean we are talking 100% discrepancy on average compared to the other oil sands producers. Someone enlighten me why I shouldn't just give up and move on?

[MigraineCall]

True, SU has lagged it's peers. Background oil fundamentals are strong. Supply, demand, inventories, etc. We talked about it in length here before. Bears will say SU is trading low because there is no future for this company being all in on oil staring a transition in the face. Granted, future sources of bitumen have not yet been resolved. Bulls will say SU has a great future as a

[ztransforms173]

- the MAJOR reason for the share price DISCOUNT to it's peers has NOTHING TO DO WITH ENERGY TRANSITION and mostly due to INSTITUTONAL BIAS against Suncor Energy for EXECUTION RISK that has manifested itself in a DEPRESSING SAFETY RECORD and GEOLOGICAL RISK FACTORS that many investors believed would be mangeable  - the new SU CEO is off to a GREAT START with a PRECISION DOWNSIZING STRIKE

[iMAnewBE]

this seems far more likely than ONLY Suncor is exposed to energy transition scare tactics.  Ill hold on for another quarter or 2.  waited a year so I guess I can wait more... thx!!

[lifeisgood1010]

I see exactly the same thing as you Migraine. SU is at an inflection point.I am max out so cannot buy more but just had the discusion with my wife.She is sitting on a mountain of cash and told her she should buy a few thousand shares. Her response was this stock could go lower.While see could be right because any thing can happen, i disagree with her. For me, this cannot be a better buying

[meritmat]

Think the market is at a show me the results. If qt start doing good the share price will follow 

[corvette67]

Definetly a real laggard. IMO is up %2.4 today Better picks in oil out there. GLTA

[Experienced]

Obviously, I can't speak for your wife, but when I was in the business, there were numerous studies that showed that woman are generally better investors than men.  There are a number of reasons for this that I won't go into but it was an interesting research finding.

[lifeisgood1010]

I read that too. Have a nice weekend and it's a pleasure reading you posts.

[mrbb]

you can't say because you don't have hardcore reason nor statistic for it? World Greatest Investors  Hmm, they are all men

[autofocus111]

"I am max out so cannot buy more" When there is a will there is a way. Have you considered selling the stock and buying deep in-the-money long-dated options? Sure you lose the dividend, but if your conviction is strong that the stock is headed up, you can lever up with for example $20 strike price 2025 expiry calls.

[lifeisgood1010]

On July 21 st Migraine pointed to a technical inflection point on SU  with a chart showing it.The same could have been said for many other oil producing company. Here is what he wrote "On a technical basis SU is nearing the narrowing pointy end of a bull pennant, poised to have an imminent breakout, where by pure statistics alone for this pattern, stands a 58% chance of it being to the

[Experienced]

Others here can provide a much more detailed explanation but here are a few things to keep in mind. You are essentially comparing apples and oranges in terms of your underlying investment premise.  Just because two companies are clumped into the same industry designation doesn't mean that they are identical.  Differences lead to differences in how the big investors value a company

[meritmat]

Only thing I'll add to that is CNRL is a way better run company.  Very strong management.  This may change with the new leadership at SU but a lot of people are taking a wait and see approach 

[iMAnewBE]

yes I understand, but 100% price lag ???? any comment as to that? thanks for all the input!!

[Experienced]

Meritmat...Absolutely mangement has a significant bearing on the SP as does execution risk.

[pooltec]

I get that but su produces a heck of a lot of oil.  If pc loosing money that has to be priced in.I  think all those shorts will get burnt. Look at the price of wheat how it popped from the Rus fin around.  Could happen to the price of oil too again. 

[mrbb]

My  granular explanation It depends how one want to present (spin) their comparison. - SU physical gas stations can be retrofited with some superchargers to pickup revenue from EV users. - New ICE cars sales are sliding due to high rates. Repo rates are high too, meaning cheaper new and used car prices are around the corner. Cheaper ICE means people would choose the lower price ICE

[Experienced]

Mrbb......True they can be retrofitted...BUT.... 1.....people buying EVs will do most of their charging at home not at a PC station.... 2.....those that don't charge at home have many more options than refitted gas stations to charge their batteries PLUS......the cost to refit is not cheap There is absolutely not way buddy that as EVs become more a part of the cars on the road that PC

[mrbb]

1. most but not all. You assumed SU only have PC stations in inner cities.  SU has gas stations in towns and along highways too. You double talk by noting superchargers are expensive to install and EV drivers have options.  Those options would be limited as superchargers are expensive to install you say, rights?  You think convenience stores have deeper pocket than SU to do the

[bttmfischer]

You could also mention The additional insurance coverage needs as well as the additional electrical load that may require retrofitting some of the older buildings. That would make rents even less affordable. 

[Experienced]

For crying out loud.  You are hopeless mrbb!!!! if you think SU and its PC stations and demand for its refinery output  will not be negatively affected by the rise of EVs then be my guest. I hope it works out for you.

[matt2018]

Relax guys.... valid points made on both sides. Like we have spoken about here, population continues to explode in this country and abroad. Especially the big cities. Many condo buildings continue going up all across the GTA (more than New York city).  Higher & larger floor plates with more units/building.  Only affordable home ownership option for many here now and that those that

[mrbb]

with current housing crises not going away for a long while yet, people can bearly pay rent or afford a downpayment on their first home. I can't see owning an EV as people's top priority. Compounding that Canada  isn't giving out EV rebate as good as in the US, barrier into EV ownership is still pretty high in canada.    

[marketsense]

This is a very interesting debate going on and several interesting points were raised. The one that caught my attention in particular,  was the fact that so many Cdns and Americans do not live in single family homes and therefore are not in control of their landlords or owners desire or ability to provide EV charging outlets for their tenants. This is going to dampen the EV transition

[mrbb]

you're too kind to says we're having a debate. There is no debate here as one side only presented opinions base on somewhat dated 'past experience', outside his sector/expertise, back by no data, math, chart, statistic or links. (hence i had used the term poser when i first encounter such poster) The experienced only dough out fear oriented cautious advice, stay out of the market

[mrbb]

you sure like to state the obvious, one can't go wrong with that approach. It's like saying the sky is blue but sky is grey when raining.  When i say PC stations can be retrofitted with superchargers, doesn't this automatically mean some gas sales would be reduced? Howver, your broad term 'negatively affected' leave you being vague so it's hard to being wrong. You

[mrbb]

what i said a day ago. The Largest Car Repossession CRISIS In HISTORY Is NOW! - YouTube that's what it suppose to be, a workable beater for under 1k$ USD what i saw in auto trader in last 2 years are unlicenceable cars with issues asking for 3 to 4k Cdn$