Back from vacation and my SU are up more than $3.40.
Reading oil news and from what i can see, there are many positive news supporting oil prices
and oil stocks SP
Cut from Mexico ,record production at Firebag, TMX starting in May, spread reduction between WCS and WTI, crack spreads staying elevated,weak CAD,AECO at $1.54...
We will get a good Q1.Rich Kruger became CEO on April 3rd 2023, so the labour reductions
started only after Q1.Also in Q1 of last year, Commerce refinery was out for the first 2 months
of Q1.
SU had eps of $2.18(special items) in Q4 and operating EPS of $1.26
Yahoo average of 6 analysts have operating EPS estimate of $1.10 for Q1(down 16 cents from Q4).
NO WAY will eps be lower in Q1 than in Q4.Average WTI was $3 lower in Q1 than in
Q4 but it will be made up by a $7.50 increase in spreads,higher production and lower costs.
Energy sector is a very defensif sector.We haven't seen a 2% drop in indices
since FEB. of 2023.
Since the lows of Oct. it's been up and up.At one point we could get a good pullback.
Make no mistake, we will get a good correction, trees don't grow to the sky
And when that comes, i would rather be invested in low multiples,high profitable company.
In a good correction could SU be drag down, ABSOLUTLY, but it will be less affected
than high multiples, high indebted, low earnings company.
Staying long SU.
A GOOD FEBRUARY FOR IN-SITU PRODUCTION
Best performers included Suncor's Firebag and Connacher's Great Divide SAGD facilities, which both posted new monthly production records. Firebag reported almost 230,000 bbl/day of bitumen, while Great Divide reported 16,500 bbl/day. All other facilities were little changed for the month.
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The WCS discount to WTI averaged about US$12.50 a barrel this week, down from a high of over US$27 last November.
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HOUSTON/MEXICO CITY, April 8 (Reuters) - Mexico's state energy company, Pemex, is planning to cut at least 330,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports in May, leaving customers in the United States, Europe and Asia with a third less supply, two sources said.
The plan follows the
withdrawal of 436,000 bpd of Maya, Isthmus and Olmeca crudes this month, ordered by Pemex to its trading arm PMI Comercio Internacional because it needs to supply more to its domestic refineries as it targets energy self-sufficiency.
Pemex has no option other than applying monthly cuts to exports after its crude production in February fell to the lowest level in 45 years and the country's refineries, including a new facility in the port of Dos Bocas, began taking in more crude oil.
Dos Bocas alone is expected to need an average of some 179,000 bpd of crude this year, according to official figures.
Neither Pemex nor its trading arm immediately responded to a request for comment.
Over the weekend, a deadly fire at a key offshore platform in the Gulf of Mexico also meant Pemex had to halt production at several wells, one of the sources said. It is not clear how many barrels would be cut as a result.
Pemex exported 1.03 million bpd of crude last year, and 945,000 bpd in January-February.
Mexico's energy ministry expects domestic processing to increase to an average of 1.04 million bpd this year from 713,300 bpd in 2023
, leaving fewer barrels available for exports in the remainder of the year. "May cuts are expected to be between 10 million and 14 million barrels (in total)," another source said.
Even though the cuts are significant and expected to be applied on a monthly basis from April onward, Pemex's trading arm has not declared force majeure over supply contracts, the sources, who are traders, said.
Most of the contracts include provisions to allocate monthly volumes of specific crudes depending on availability, the sources added. The volumes are agreed mid-month.
Pemex and the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said earlier this year that the Dos Bocas refinery, in Mexico's Tabasco state, would start producing gasoline and diesel in the first quarter.
While the refinery has begun processing crude in recent months, it has yet to contribute to the domestic market with finished motor fuels.
Apart from the increased local demand, dwindling reserves - especially at old Gulf of Mexico fields - is another challenge, a separate source, at the energy ministry, said.