It's been awhileA big hello to all of the SU posters that keep me reading this site.
I checked out the most recent Short positions this morning now that we are past the mid-point of the month.
The Short position for SU increased by just under $1.9 billion or about 42 million shares from Feb 1 to Feb 15. The change almost tripled the previous Short position as per: https://shortdata.ca/largest-short-positions.
The good news is that those shares will have to be bought back at some point.
The bad news list is much longer than the good news when it comes to Short positions as Short position traders:
* Are among the most sophisticated investors in the market
* Have really good information which they share with each other
* Work together to leverage their power so they have WAY more money than we do
* Can be really patient when they need to be
* Play for dollars, not pennies
SU closed at $46.08 on January 31st. The share price closed at $44.59 on Friday which is down 3% from the Jan 31 close.
I have stated many times that I don't know enough about the oil industry to be able to claim any expertise. In fact, I have learned more from MigraineCell's posts alone and also from other posters here than I knew before I first bought SU shares.
What I think I do have is a rudimentary understanding of the market after 40 years as an investor including time spent in retail as well as a financial analyst.
Based upon my best guess, I think SU shares are in for more pain before the Shorts buy back their positions. I don't know if the Shorts have stopped selling or not as they like to hide behind the mid-month and end of month declaration dates.
I stopped trying to figure out IF or WHEN oil prices have will recover or drop, and by how much.
I stopped trying to figure out IF or WHEN the Elliott Managment guys are going to end up calling the shots. IF or WHEN they do gain control, I will take another look with fresh eyes after they have made their intentions clear.
I stopped trying to figure out IF Suncor has a better or worse risk/reward ratio than its competitors.
What I think I know is:
* the Short traders are better at timing things than me....ie, the time to buy is when they cover
* the FED will give the green light when it's ready...until then keeping, keeping some "Dry Powder" is probably a good strategy
* the macro news (economy, war, oil demand, etc) provides better clues to the future price of SU shares than anything that comes out of SU management
* SU needs to tell us about a new plan or provide sound reasoning why it is doubling down on its existing plan in the face of a rapidly changing world wide energy strategy before it becomes investible for me
That's all I got....which ain't much. Thanks for taking the time to read.
GLTA as always