RE:More on Global Oil Demand Going ForwardGreat post as usual..
You have put your finger on the biggest issue facing longer term investment in oil stocks.
Which trend line is going to be greater?
Demand destruction or supply destruction.
I guess the difference between us can be boiled down to the fact that you think it will be supply destruction and I think it will be demand destruction.
The interesting thing about this is Econ 101. If the supply destruction trend is greater as you seem to imply then this will cause oil prices to go up in the short run benefitting investment in SU. But over the longer term, the higher oil price will hasten the permanent oil demand destruction since math for alternatives to using oil will become even more compelling. So ironically, the fact that there could be some oil supply bottlenecks over the next few years could actually speed up the demise of oil producers.
In a nutshell this why I have been saying that I will play the short term swings in oil prices during this transition over the next few years, but my long term money is elsewhere.