RE:RE:Russia's grey fleet keeps it oil and gas exports movingMC: good comments as usual.
A few thoughts:
1) Demand for oil in China, Asia, and India may be increasing but for how long?
* China is racing towards energy independence faster than any country in the world
* Asia: Indonesia is pressing hard to get an automaker to build an EV plant and is moving its capital f from Jakarta (34 million people) to Borneo to minimize its catastrophic air pollution (7,000 documented deaths per year plus who knows how many more undocumented)
* Japan is racing towards a hydrogen energy solution to save its omnipotent auto industry
* Korea's Hyundai Corporation makes up 6% of it GDP. Hyundai is racing towards an EV future and will probably be the third largest EV automaker in the future behind BYD and Tesla
2) Thanks to Trudeau cancelling Energy East in 2017, Suncor became pretty much fully dependent upon the USA for exports. As the USA and Canada rushes towards a renewable future, Suncor's focus on producing fuel for transportation appears to be incredibly short sighted
3) While TMX will offer Suncor a small amount of access to non-USA exports, it will not be nearly enough. Even if Suncor can get some of its oil exported offshore:
* China: Saudi Arabia has made its intentions about securing Chinese demand very clear
* Asia : has made it intentions about renewables very clear:
* Japan is racing towards hydrogen as an energy source to back in omnipotent auto industry
* Indonesia is pressing hard for an EV auto maker to build locally to take advantage of its huge nickle supply. Indonesia is moving its capital (Jakarta 34 million pop) to Borneo to alleviate the 7,0000 annual documented deaths from pollution to a "forest state with a target of net ZERO carbon living by 2045)
* India already imports 30% of its oil and 70% of its gas from GCC. The GCC and Russia are located close to India and I highly doubt that they will ever let Suncor get a toe hold into India.
In 5 years, 50% to 80% of new car sales will be EV's in Canada and the USA. There will still be lots of ICE cars and trucks on the road, but the demand for fuel for transportation will continue to drop.
Who is Suncor going to sell to?
What is Suncor's plan?
Are the 5% dividends really worth it?