Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

So What are the Headwinds For Oil

[Experienced]

Short Term

1...strengthening US dollar

2....demand destruction in a recession

Worst case for the US dollar is about 10% and in a recession 3-5%.  If both happen we could see a price around 85 a barrel.



Long Term

Increasing movement to EVs

Hard to predict but likely somewhere around 15% less oil demand and much lower oil prices

[Bigbear7405]

I don't see the dollar strengthening as short term. They are planning on raising rates for two years.till 2024. That is when they assume inflation will drop to 2%. We are looking at north of 5 percent at least. I studied the 2008 recession when i did my undergrad in accounting. We didn't have that bad inflation back then. What we have now is really bad. The worst since the early 80s

[Experienced]

With all due respect bear you are missing the point. YTD - the US dollar is up about 17% vs the Euro. This has been one of the factors that oil prices have fallen from their peak in early March. The Fed plans on increasing interest rates this month by 75 or 100 basis points.  The ECB will raise interest rates this month by 25 or 50 basis points.  Either in August or September The Fed