Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

How will the crashing housing market affect oil?

[Bigbear7405]

So imagine if there was no SPR at this moment.  Oil would be a record highs and inflation would not have come down at all and the fed would have to increase interest rates WAY more agressively.  By using the SPR have we just post poned this scenerio?  We are in a recession, we have had two quarters at negative GDP and this last one will be as well.  But inflation is still high?  Will we be raising interest rates into a recession?   BRUTAL.  That is something we don't want but looks likes there is no other choice.  I know a lot of people see one thing and that is oil going up and making money but I always look at the bigger picture. (Hats off to my economics classes in college).

Then i see statements such as this: 

"July existing home sales in the states fell for 8th month out of 9 22.5 %YOY drop, which is the biggest decline since Aprill 2011. The supply of unsold homes is at its highest since March 2008.  Remeber these were the worst months of the Housing Bust. 

 Suddenly no “housing shortage”: Inventories and supply spike to high heaven.

Inventory for sale in all stages of construction jumped to 464,000 houses, up by 28%, from July last year, and the highest since March 2008: 

So the housing market in the states is in free fall.  Its a housing recession again just like in the Great Recession, and we are still rasing interest rates, which makes buying a home even harder.  

A lot of construction workers use trucks i bet.   Shipping of wood, materials etc..  I guess that stops?

Oil needs to not go up so this recession is a run of the mill and not epic like 2008...or worse

[Experienced]

In a post some time ago, I talked about what period of time is comparable to the situation we are facing  today. I won't bore people by going through that again.  The key thing is that while a lot people draw comparisons of today's situation to that of the Great Recession, the fact of the matter is that such a comparison isn't the one to look at because the underlying

[Bigbear7405]

Why is it that when when we raise interest rates its causes a recession?   Lets look at history. 10 of the last 10 recessions where interest rates were raised, prior resulted in a recession.   The question is how big and how bad will it be.  Let take a look at history where interest rates where raised: 1957  Recession 1960 Recession 1970 Recession  1974