Suncor Energy Inc. T.SU

US Debt Ceiling "Talks" Some Thoughts

[Experienced]

The US (and the World) has been here before so in that sense it is nothing new.  In the past when there wasn't an Agreement prior to the deadline like in 2011, the market went down only to rebound after an Agreement was hammered out.

So this begs the question - "What's new and different this time?"

When I look at this question, my answer is "Lots"

1....in the past when these things happened it was sheer negotiation without any Congressional mandate.  This time around the House Republicans passed legislation which is subject to Senate and White House Approval.  So it is up to the Democrats to pass something else or a White House veto.

2....in the past there was more bipartisan support will to find a solution.  Right now there is precious little.

3...in the past Congresssional leaders had enough votes to get things passed once an Agreement was hammered out.  In the current situation with the extremists on both sides the extemists have enough votes to stop anything, abeit for opposite reasons.

4...Biden has two new options - imposing the 14th Amendment Section 4 or defaulting and giving the Republicans the blame for the recession and saving his bacon

Will any of these four things be enough to rsult in a shutdown/default?

Who knows right now but it does add a lot of risk to holding stocks right now.

[marketsense]

Agree.  While I like my holdings,   I reduced them because of this.  The lack of will and the rancor does not make for a timely ending.  I don't want to see them go over the edge but given the above observations,  the risks are certainly heightened.  The  markets are hovering on a knife edge ridden with anxiety over each and every nuance. If they go over

[Experienced]

One thing I find very sad about the situation in the US is that the extremists on the left and the right are using their leverage to essentially control things.  I have a lot of close friends in the US, some are Republicans and some are Democrats.  In talking to them "at the kitchen table", I find that they are just left or right of centre.  The current Government in the