Post by
lastpick on Jun 08, 2024 3:03pm
Some Questions on Crude Oil Pricing
I was just thinking about what impacts the futures prices of crude oil. Here is my attempt to list the factors in order of impact on futures prices:
1. Supply vs demand - where is the best place to find this information? What affects these going forward?
2. Current and near term inventories - API ans EIA only consider US inventories, where should one look for a complete world picture? Perhaps China, India, Iran, Iraq data is not available or credible but may actually make up the major storage of crude oil workd wide
3. Governments impact on pricing - royalties, fuel economy mandates, cardon emission reduction mandates, etc
4. Air pollution can cause a reduction on ICE usage in heavy populated urban areas
5. Hostile actions between countries may affect import/ export trade in and production/demand for crude oil
6 Subsitutes for crude oil and products made from crude oil such as Natural Gas, Hydrogen and perhaps Ammonia which can be made by splitting water with electricity generated from solar wind or hydro power.
There are undoubtly many more factors. How does one take them all into account to understand future pricing?
Comment by
mrbb on Jun 09, 2024 12:18pm
as for the SU/CVE/MEG investors, i'm more focused on WCS.
Comment by
Oldnagger on Jun 09, 2024 9:42am
Here is a very good video from BNN that will help understanding what is going on in the crude (and products ) markets at present https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/opec-extends-deep-oil-production-cuts-into-2025~2933388
Comment by
Oldnagger on Jun 09, 2024 9:47am
Also here is a good free site for anyone interested in counting barrels https://peakoilbarrel.com/