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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum StageZero Life Sciences Ltd T.SZLS

Alternate Symbol(s):  SZLSF

StageZero Life Sciences, Ltd. is a Canada-based vertically integrated healthcare company. The Company is focused on improving the early detection and management of cancer and other chronic diseases through diagnostics telehealth programs. Its lead product, Aristotle, is a mRNA multi-cancer panel for simultaneously screening for multiple cancers from a single sample of blood with high... see more

TSX:SZLS - Post Discussion

StageZero Life Sciences Ltd > Aristotle testing volumes and daily schedule
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Post by LithLover on Jan 23, 2022 4:15pm

Aristotle testing volumes and daily schedule

If you check the scheduled call link below, there are usually on average 15 appointments per day 6 days a week.

https://careoncology.com/reserve-a-call-with-a-case-manager/


For the last month these appointments have all been taken.  For example if you look at the schedule there are none available this Monday or Tuesday and only 2 left on Wednesday (and yes the appointments were there last week when I checked). This has been happening for weeks now since the GTA roll out.  The company recently hired 2 case managers to handle the volume.  The postings are down so I assume they were hired.

Now even if 2/3 or 10 of the 15 sign up for tests thats 60 tests a week (6 days) about 250 tests a month.  Revenue is $2,000 CAD or $1500 USD per test.  Could even be multiple tests if families or couples are calling in together.  But stick with 10 tests per day.  $20,000 a day or $500,000 a month.  $1.5 million a quarter.  $6 million a year and thats just Aristotle based on a single test not families or multiple tests.  There is also AVRT which was doing $4 million a year and growing prior to the acquisition.  Add in Covid revenue, other cancer tests and more follow up revenue from the Care protocals and revenues could be over $10 million annually.  On the CEO video interview andin  the job description for Legal Counsel both hinting at the Care UK roll out.  More revnues will be coming from there as well.

At 10-14 times annual revenue that values the company between $100-140 million which is $1.25-1.75 a share.  Even at half that revenue the share price should be $0.60-0.85.  Way undervalued at this level and still being manipulated.

Not a matter of if it goes back over $1 but when.



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Comment by brad129 on Jan 23, 2022 6:52pm
That's a lot of assumptions, don't you think?
Comment by LithLover on Jan 23, 2022 7:05pm
Nope. I think 2/3 of people booking a consult is reasonable to follow through with a test.  But let's say only 1/3 book and it's only 5 tests per day thats 30 a week.  $3 million a year from Aristotle.  $4 million from Care.  $7 million and say the industry valuation is on the low end of the 10-14 times revenue   Still $70 million valuation  Doesn't ...more  
Comment by brad129 on Jan 23, 2022 7:43pm
Sounds great on paper, sure hope your assumptions come to fruition, I still think back to Bully's charts posting testing numbers. I sure hope they aren't trying to hire a lawyer for 150-200k a year and then hitting more private placements to cover their wage.
Comment by gojotv! on Jan 25, 2022 11:19am
Lith, still can't get over your calculation, and how conservative it is. It's based on website bookings in the U.S. and Canada alone. Add to that phone bookings, and then add the patients who decide to forego the free consultation and go right into treatment... And the U.K... Your very restrained, conservative figures need to be doubled and even tripled to reflect what's really going ...more  
Comment by molotov420 on Jan 25, 2022 12:07pm
Oh Gojo....how about for you we ballpark it at about 30M by year end and we'll ask Tripp to finally announce the large employer too.  Lith your numbers seem realistic but who knows what's going on with those consultations. Could be anything, even someone just removing appointments. We need quarterly reports to tell us whats really happening. 
Comment by IainCaimbeul on Jan 25, 2022 3:12pm
Here is gojotv's prediction from 19 aug 2021: If you don't think this stock is an easy double from HERE... Then you just don't understand math. From here, easy double in four months, and tripled by Christmas. Q3 financials will point to where SZLS is going, for those who can read the signs. Meanwhile, Q2 revenues were over six (6) times Q2 2020 revenues. Anyone who doesn't see ...more  
Comment by Liked2Think on Jan 25, 2022 12:54pm
and your the same "genius" that was saying $4B evaluation in March before BOOM! just shut up
Comment by LithLover on Jan 23, 2022 8:01pm
And just like that the 2 wednesday Jan 26 appointments for next week are gone. 24 25 26 27 10 28 10 29 3
Comment by molotov420 on Jan 24, 2022 9:51am
sure...but why dont they share all of their wonderful success stories with us. Instead you get to play a guessing game and watch the SP tank 10% on monday morning. Good times 
Comment by Nailbiter1 on Jan 23, 2022 8:39pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by pantono1 on Jan 24, 2022 11:00am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by pantono1 on Jan 24, 2022 2:12am
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by LithLover on Jan 24, 2022 10:24am
Appointments down to only 14 for the rest of week.   24 25 26 27 4 28 9 29 1 30 31        
Comment by Pacman28 on Jan 24, 2022 11:34am
why do we only book 15 appointments a day when the demand seems to be there?
Comment by LithLover on Jan 24, 2022 12:16pm
I am sure they will add more case managers with the next hub and spoke roll out of a new location. 15 appointments at 2/3 booked is $6 million in annual revenue.  As they bring on other locations this will only increase. Down to only 11 appointments left this week. Was 25 yesterday and 90 at the start of last week.  
Comment by Liked2Think on Jan 24, 2022 12:25pm
math and spreadsheets have always worked out so well on this board. Cut your "estimates" by at least 50% then you might be on track like whoever it was that used to put up all the worthless covid test "quantity guesses"
Comment by gojotv! on Jan 24, 2022 12:44pm
Hahaha, silly geese! Look at the page and read again... It's clear that this is the internet booking site only. It doesn't include the numbers, probably higher, of those who prefer to call in to request an appointment... See? The phone number is on the page. It says, "call OR book by internet". What we see here are the 15 spots/day reserved to internet bookings. AND these are ...more  
Comment by gojotv! on Jan 24, 2022 12:58pm
Clearly, we're booking more than 15 appointments/day. At 30 min. per appointment, that's the workload for one single case manager. SZLS recently hired two MORE to add to existing staff. It's obvious that the webpage is just the start for internet bookings. The current caseload has to be much higher when you count phone-ins. And that, for the U.S. and Canada alone.  Also not ...more  
Comment by Liked2Think on Jan 24, 2022 1:16pm
you have been saying its a "buying opportunity" ever since $1.10 you have never been right how is it clearly booking more than 15 a day?  Why? because you say so? Its obvious the webpage is just the start for internet bookings. WTF does that even mean.  you mean a webpage for online bookings is "obviously a website for online bookings".  Talk about a worthless ...more  
Comment by IainCaimbeul on Jan 24, 2022 2:01pm
Gojotv could not find his arsz with both hands.
Comment by okletsmakemoney on Jan 24, 2022 8:36pm
Hawaii | Pacific | Mountain | Central | Eastern Tests appointments also divided by 5 different zone for appt schedules. You will see each zone has different available spot during the week. 
Comment by Pacman28 on Jan 24, 2022 8:50pm
so does that mean we can multiply Liths # by 5??
Comment by Liked2Think on Jan 24, 2022 9:15pm
negative change the timezone and look at the times.  its the same amount just shows a different time based on your zone.
Comment by gossamer5 on Jan 24, 2022 9:38pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by eagerbeaver50 on Jan 25, 2022 2:16pm
Good digs and I agree that the stock is undervalued, but I don't think you can legitimately say that the price is being manipulated when the volume is averaging ~170k shares per day.  That could easily be any individual retail investors getting bored and selling to folks on this board who want to scoop up more cheap shares.  The reality is our stock is not big on the radar of many ...more  
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