RE: This has become a hopeless stockI think TD could be missing the real picture. Nat gas is the upside for sure and will enable drillers to increase dayrates more substantially - however the real macro event here is the redeployment of rigs to oil projects. Virtually all doubles and heavy triples in the basin are targeting horizontal oil plays. Companies like TDG, CDI and SDG.UN have the types of rigs necessary for this drilling. I am in the industry and trying to secure one of these rigs is getting difficult, day rates are going up. If you look at utilization levels for those companies they have been running close to 75 to 100 percent for some portions of the summer (prior to September rains). That type of utilization is pretty spectacular at this time of year given the uncertainty in most markets.
Akita, pd and ensign have a lot of singles that were built in the gas boom years of 2003 to 2008 - those rigs are sitting and can be had very cheap.
The cardium. viking and bakken oil plays have been a savior to the drillers, I think a rise in gas prices will be a late 2011 catalyst.
At least TDG pays us 4% to stick around and wait.
Good luck.