TSX:TFII - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Apr 28, 2021 8:29am
TD
A nice beat across the board so I anticipate that they will soon raise their current target of $110.00. GLTA
TFI International Inc.
(TFII-T) C$99.98
Q1/21 First Look Event
TFI reported Q1/21 after the close yesterday. Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.77 was ahead of our forecast of $0.62 and consensus of $0.74. Adjusted EBITDA of $176 million compared with TD/consensus at $161 million/$166 million.
Impact: POSITIVE
TFI outperformed our own and the consensus expectations for all key metrics in Q1/21 with its strong margin performance resulting in 18% y/y Adjusted EBITDA growth and 26% Adjusted EPS growth. FCF of $143 million ($1.50/share) was substantially ahead of our forecast, leading to lower net debt and readying the company's balance sheet for the $800 million expected acquisition of UPS Freight in Q2/21. The company is hosting a conference call today at 8:30 a.m., after which we will provide additional analysis and any required update to forecasts and our target price.
Package and Courier: Revenue ex-fuel increased 26% y/y to $131.5 million, and was above our $122.6-million forecast. Adjusted EBITDA increased 40% y/y to $24.9 million (18.9% margin), above our $21.6 million (17.6% margin) forecast. Management noted the strong yield and a shift to higher-quality freight.
Less-than-Truckload: Revenue ex-fuel decreased 2% y/y to $131.6 million, and was above our $116.1-million forecast. Adjusted EBITDA increased 34% y/y to $34.6 million (26.3% margin), above our $22.2 million (19.1% margin) forecast. Higher pricing, lower tonnage and sub-contractor costs, contributed to the strong margins.
Truckload: Revenue ex-fuel increased 7% y/y to $424.6 million (-3.4% organic), and was slightly below our $436.1 million forecast. Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% y/y to $94.6 million (22.3% margin), in line with our forecast. Conventional TL operations in the U.S. were negatively affected by the severe winter weather in February.
Logistics: Revenue ex-fuel increased 89% y/y to $378.4 million (+4.8% organic), slightly above our $366.0-million forecast. Organic revenue growth was driven by e- commerce-related activities in Canada and in the existing U.S. operations. Adjusted EBITDA increased 72% y/y to $39.4 million (10.4% margin), above our $25.5-million (7.0% margin) forecast.
FCF was $143 million compared with our estimate of $69 million with the difference due to lower capex ($37 million), higher cash from operations ($24 million) and higher asset sales ($13 million).
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