RE:RE:RE:Some Good News788 by end of 2019 or possibly you mean 2018? I had based my estimates off of Fuzeon so this would still be disappointing but does seem to be how we are trending at this point. The biggest positive for me is that we had ~200 TRx by I believe a similar amount of physicians if I remember correctly. Once the docs finish their initial assessment of the drug with their own experience I expect things to really pick up and by then reimbursement will not be an issue. KOL’s will be leveraged at this point as well for peer to peer talks which are extremely impactful. Good weekend all.
SPCEO1 wrote: mattw1100 wrote: Does Bloomberg break out NRx vs TRx (new scripts vs refills + new scripts) or is refill even applicable to this brand, I would assume so? They don't need a new script each time they take the drug? NBRx would be the best (new to brand) but I assume this is not provided.
They do but use the info at your own risk. Again, this is all bad info but we do know in this case that the trend is for the info to be bad on the low side.
Of the 18 prescriptions 13 were new ones.
The bottom line is that 13 is somewhere closer to 26. Do the math - it is the kind of number we want to see.
The reason for doubling the number is because it seemed that Bloomberg was only capturing at best half of the patients the company said it had. It may be that we should multiply the Bloomberg numbers by 2.3 or 2.5. You just can't be sure since we don't have enough info and the ionfo we have we know is suspect. But it is clear that today's number was a very good one and an indication that things are moving very nicely in the right direction. If we get 4 similiar numbers over the next six weeks, we will know things are movng along just fine. But the Bloomberg numbers do jump around from week to week.
Basically, 26 new prescriptions per week translates into about 110-115 per normal month. (holidays like the 4th of July, mess up the month especially when they fall in the middle of the week like this year). Now, it is way yot early to make that extrapolation but 80-90 new patients in July seems easily doable and that kind of progression would fit nicely with my projections for the number of patients by the end of 2019 (which is 788, but don't be taken in by the apparent precision of that number - anything + or - 30 of 788 would be considered as having hit the target)..