Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:ICPT data out this am

[longterm56]

If you own THERF, you ARE a betting man! -LT

palinc2000 wrote: If I were a betting man I would bet that the Nash results will be released tomorrow  or Thursday morning .....wihch wouls mean positive results for Nash and as expected  no so good results for Trogarzo.

SPCEO1 wrote: Drug tests are notoriously hard to predict. The ICPT data this morning apparently may have been thrown off some by a lot of people taking the placebo dropping out for example. So, until you see the actual results, it is hard to make too many claims. But the eaelier tests give us some hope, the LTF doctor seems to think we have good reason to expect good results and the company has at least mentioned NASH after ignoring it forever. Those are hopeful signs, but the data is the only thing that matters in the end. 

I asked the LTF doctor what she thought if Egrfita was shown to be more effective than ICPT's drug on fibrosis and she said it would be huge. I also asked if ti would be easy for egrifta to escape the cnstraints of the HIV NASH sub-segment if the results are good and she was less enthusiastic about that due to allt he things going on in an HIV patients body - the FDA would want additional tests. But she did concede egrifta could be used off-label by wealthy folks with and that the FDA may allow compassionate use of it in cases where the disease is clearly moving towards death. My sense is that egrifta will be used earlier on in the disease's progression, however.

But, like you said, bring on the data and let's see what we have. Maybe we should raise a little money for Dr. Grinspoon to hire a few interns! 

PoorOpinion wrote: If they could get NASH data out around earnings this might end up being perfect timing. But this is Grinspoon's baby, he controls the data flow.

I think you're right we're not considered a NASH player yet. I'm not sure I'm fully convinced we are one. If the data is poor we may NOT be a NASH player before we ever were one. Let's hope that's not the case. There's a lot of "nots" in those few sentances.

Bring on the data!

SPCEO1 wrote: It will be quite something if Egrifta shows a better result on fibrosis than ICPT's drug. And it willcertainly get noticed if it does, but since no one even knows Egrifta is out there being tested on NASH, we who are paying attention would likely have a chance to buy more (assuming you don't already own too much) before those investors chasing the NASH stocks realize what is going on. Also, our test is on NASH patients with HIV but that may quickly become meaningless if the results are good. IF there is no scientific reason why HIV NASH patients and the general NASH population should respond differently to Egrifta, the crossover to the general NASH population might happen quickly. And since Egrifta is already approved, wealthy US NASH patients could start taking it right away.

PoorOpinion wrote: So what I'm reading is the result is less than stellar but it stands out as the first drug to significantly reduce fibrosis and obviously a path to approval is great. It seems there was also a sizable short position so the SP is going to be benefitting from that. The side effects look concerning.

I was hoping tesamorelin was going to excel with the fibrosis objective, this seems to be the differentiator and the one thing that might get it more noticed. Although that's the one area we have no real knowledge about whether it works. To my knowledge there's no data on its effect on fibrosis yet (???). It does seem that there is plenty of room to be better than the Intercept drug. At least we have a target to judge tesamorelin by now which looks potentially beatable. 

SPCEO1 wrote: Unfortunately, I am skeptical about any similiar reaction on TH's share price if it reported its NASH results today. ICPT is on all the US NASH investor's radar screens and their results were highly anticipated. Not many beyond those who read this message board are even aware of TH's NASH test (which is also a phase II test rathert than a phase III) and even fewer are eagerlya waiting its results. So, if TH does have good results it will likely take a little time before the market recognizes it, unless the company really highlights the potential opportunities such postiive test results imply for the future. Of course, if the NASH test results are not good, then there also should not be a sell-off in TH's stock. 

palinc2000 wrote: The 25% increase in the SP of IPCT on the Nash news is equivalent to 1 Billion Cad Dollrs